EUR/USD: Decrease in tensions, mounted from the euro

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The euro resumed a puff of oxygen, retracing a large part of its side navigation strip between $ 1,1460 and $ 1,1674, in the wake of the white house of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Ceasefire denied by Tehran who nevertheless undertakes to stop his strikes if such Aviv puts an end to his “attack”.

As a reminder this weekend, targeted strikes were ordered by the White House on Iranian nuclear sites. Surgical by their precision, but massive by their power, these strikes targeted in particular the Fordo site, at the heart of the nuclear issues of the mullahs regime. This uranium enrichment site, built nearly 100 meters underground in a mountainous region, was particularly difficult to reach.

President Donald Trump said that “monumental” damage had been inflicted on these sites.

The massive reflux of crude prices brings welcome relief in the financial markets, relief which the single currency benefits by its status of refuge value. The WTI, the Texan reference, lost almost 13% in a few hours, after Iran’s attack on the American base of Al-Udeid in Qatar. According to Reuters and the New York Times, Iran coordinated its attack with Qatar so as to minimize human victims and wounded.

Oil dropped because investors understood “that Iran’s reprisals did not target energy targets and that (Tehran) probably sought to avoid climbing with the United States, Iran having warned Qatar before the strikes,” said Deutsche Bank.

This attack thus removed fears of more severe measures such as the closure of the Strait of Ormuz, therefore. “It was a counterattack with activated security,” summarizes Stephen Innes of Spi am.

At the macroeconomic agenda on Tuesday, to follow the American consumer confidence index at 4:00 p.m. Yesterday the operators on currencies were able to read the first estimates of activity barometers (PMI) for services and industry in the euro zone. No notable surprise on the scale of the entire monetary union, the results proving to be very close to the consensus. Note a pleasant surprise on the side of the component of the German services, stands out at 49.4, a level close to the 50 points bar which as a reminder constitutes by construction a separation between contraction (below) and an expansion (above).

“If the situation seems to improve in Germany, France is struggling, on the other hand, to find a certain momentum. We can hardly hope for the prosecution, in the second half, of the renewed expansion highlighted in the first quarter by the official data relating to GDP (+ 0.6 %), which also reflected exceptional circumstances, such as an unexpected rebound in Irish growth. Report, the prospects for activity at twelve months having indeed improved while employment continued to progress during the month, “commented Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist in Hamburg Commercial Bank.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1610 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Thursday, June 12, the spot freed from the grip of a resistance zone at $ 1,1460, a zone which is already early tested, in the form of a sweater This Friday. The absence of upward expansion after the crossing of the $ 1,1460 is doubted about the capacity of the spot to continue in the coming weeks its substantive ascending movement. The test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) will therefore be essential. In the immediate future, a continuation of the oscillations without amplitude, in lateral technical camisole, is envisaged.

This technical camisole ($ 1,1460 – $ 1,1674) was confirmed, its amplitude having been traced in a few hours, with confirmation value.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the courses of Euro Dollar parity (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1460 USD and the resistance to 1,1674 USD.

Daily data graphics