CAC 40: The market has pink glasses

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The nervousness intensifies on the Parisian market, where operators question themselves: how many months or year the Iranian nuclear program is delayed? Is the Fed finally about to soften its monetary policy? Will the inevitable return of customs issues on markets of market rooms this summer will result in clearances on risk assets?

Yesterday the CAC 40, a tricolor flagship index on shares, won 1.04% at 7,615 points, in relatively thick volumes with regard to the previous sessions, but while ending at a good distance from its high session points.

Donald Trump said on the night of Monday to Tuesday that the two countries had accepted a cease-fire. Tel Aviv then accused Iran of having broken this agreement and The two countries continue to attack each otherprovoking the ire of the owner of the White House. However, “we have attended a fairly remarkable de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East in the last 12 hours,” observes Deutsche Bank.

As a reminder this weekend, targeted strikes were ordered by the White House on Iranian nuclear sites. Surgical by their precision, but massive by their power, these strikes targeted in particular the Fordo site, at the heart of the nuclear issues of the mullahs regime. This uranium enrichment site, built nearly 100 meters underground in a mountainous region, was particularly difficult to reach.

President Donald Trump said that “monumental” damage had been inflicted on these sites. “Tehran acts his defeat, but ensures the survival of his regime” [des mollahs]analyzed Pierre Haski, in a geopolitical editorial this morning on France Inter. However, no reliable information is currently available on the delay that now accuses Tehran in the finalization of its nuclear military program.

On the monetary aspect, “faithful to his mantra of the moment, Jerome Powell persists in his posture of strategic patience. Faced with inflation deemed too uncertain, the impact of customs duties difficult to quantify, to a globally resilient economy and to a labor market far from the break, the president of the American institution does not see any reason to modify the monetary policy and does not want to react prematurely” Note Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion.

The active managing decision -maker notes “however that if the job market keeps, on the front, a full -employment pace, it nevertheless shows some signs of fragility, in particular through the slowdown in job creations or the rise in claims of allowances. Above all, the drop in the rate of participation, which Jerome Powell was well kept to explain but which is largely influenced by the backdone of immigration, could Artificially contribute to maintaining the low unemployment rate. Thus, if the members of the FOMC voted unanimously in favor of the status quo (maintenance in guiding rate in the range 4.25% – 4.5%) and always anticipate two rate drops for the end of the year, their forecasts are increasingly dispersed in the face of the macroeconomic scenarios: ten members provide two or more drop drops this year, while nine see one or less. “

Investors learned yesterday’s first declarations of the President of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) which was auditioned this Tuesday and Wednesday by the House of Representatives. Jerome Powell said the Fed could “wait” before making a drop in interest rates, evoking inflation still too high and an always solid labor market. “For the moment, we are well placed to wait to know more about the likely evolution of the economy before considering any adjustment of our policy,” said Jerome Powell.

On the commercial aspect, the date of July 09, which will end, due to the lack of agreement, the commercial truce between Washington and Brussels. “Either we reach a good agreement or they [les membres de l’UE] will pay what we will tell them to pay, “Trump said in the presidential plane while he was rushing the Canadian G7.

In the statistical chapter, marked disappointment concerning the index of confidence of American households (Conference Board), which reflected at 93 points, against a target (the consensus) at 99.5.

On the values ​​side, falling from oil prices leads to several collateral effects on actions. Air France-KLM rebounded by 8.6% because the fuel bill is one of its most important spending stations, while Totalenergies returned 3.3%. Alstom climbed 7.7% helped both by the context favorable to cyclical values ​​as well as several commercial successes. Ayvens won 6.3% while UBS initiated its follow -up to purchase, while Nexans resumed 5.55% thanks to Deustche Bank which started its coverage on purchase on the cable manufacturer. OVHCLOUD dropped 16.3% after delivering disappointing growth in the third quarter of its 2024-2025 fiscal year.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended the Tuesday session in green territory, like the Dow Jones (+1.19%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.43%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, increased by 1.11%, claiming more the surpassing of 6,000 symbolic points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1620. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 65.20. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.29%. As for the Vix, it was worth 17.48 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the sales of new housing in the United States at 4:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

Key graphics elements

The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.

The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.

First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too. The short -term configuration is gradually weakened.

At the coming session level, a neutral opinion is offered.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7700.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7512.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics