CAC 40: Safe, Donald?

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While the market questions the actual extent of the damage inflicted by Washington on Iranian nuclear installations, the CAC 40 folded up by 0.76% on Wednesday, closing exactly on these low session points.

“Despite the fears of the weekend following American bombings, we saw a rapid and massive de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. A limited response from Iran, without impact on energy facilities, and American pressure opened the door to a truce between Israel and Iran”, would like to highlight Xavier Chapard, strategist at LBPAM.

“If risks persist (respect for the ceasefire, the real state of Iranian nuclear installations …), this de-escalation is favorable for the world economy,” he adds.

But an information report of the Pentagon was leaked in the press, relativizing the possible damage inflicted on nuclear installations. Questions about this nuance of the effectiveness of the strikes caused Donald Trump’s ire at the opening of the NATO summit.

As a reminder this weekend, targeted strikes were ordered by the White House on Iranian nuclear sites. Surgical by their precision, but massive by their power, these strikes targeted in particular the Fordo site, at the heart of the nuclear issues of the mullahs regime. This uranium enrichment site, built nearly 100 meters underground in a mountainous region, was particularly difficult to reach.

On the values ​​side, Stellantis climbed 3.1% worn by Jefferies who went to “keep” buying “on the title. Outside CAC 40, the Worldline payment group collapsed 38.3% while the company was pinned by a large journalistic investigation writing that the group failed in its control obligations with sulfurous customers. Find the explanations here.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares closed in dispersed order, the Dow Jones contracting by 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite grapping 0.31%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, ended at the perfect balance on the 6,092 points.

On the monetary aspect, “faithful to his mantra of the moment, Jerome Powell persists in his posture of strategic patience. Faced with inflation deemed too uncertain, the impact of customs duties difficult to quantify, to a globally resilient economy and to a labor market far from the break, the president of the American institution does not see any reason to modify the monetary policy and does not want to react prematurely” Note Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion.

The active managing decision -maker notes “however that if the job market keeps, on the front, a full -employment pace, it nevertheless shows some signs of fragility, in particular through the slowdown in job creations or the rise in claims of allowances. Above all, the drop in the rate of participation, which Jerome Powell was well kept to explain but which is largely influenced by the backdone of immigration, could Artificially contribute to maintaining the low unemployment rate. Thus, if the members of the FOMC voted unanimously in favor of the status quo (maintenance in guiding rate in the range 4.25% – 4.5%) and always anticipate two rate drops for the end of the year, their forecasts are increasingly dispersed in the face of the macroeconomic scenarios: ten members provide two or more drop drops this year, while nine see one or less. “

After Christopher Waller, the governor of the Fed, who spoke of the idea of ​​a drop in rates in July, last week, this hypothesis was again mentioned by Vice-President, Michelle Bowman on Tuesday.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1620. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 65.20. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.29%. As for the Vix, it was worth 17.48 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority of quarterly GDP data, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits and orders of lasting goods in the United States at 2:30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.

The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.

First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too. The short -term configuration is gradually weakened.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7700.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7512.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics