EUR/USD: The single currency retains the advantage

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A feeling of hope on the outcome of the trade war waged by Trump against the rest of the world continues to carry the “risk” currency that constitutes the euro, while the dollar loses points as the prospect of a decrease in federal rates is close.

The market appreciates certain advances on the file of customs duties. Beijing and Washington have announced that they have agreed on the details of an agreement made in London, mid-June, which must reduce customs surcharge that the two countries had mutually inflicted. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, also said that the United States would specify concluding commercial negotiations with more than a dozen countries by early September, according to the Wall Street Journal. Which implies that The administration will not stick to the deadline of July 9, which it initially set to impose higher customs duties on imports from dozens of countries.

In the statistical chapter, the PCE prices, the favorite measure of the Fed in its appreciation of the prices, clearly constituted the point of statistical organ on Friday. They have just been published, up 0.2%, twice as much as the consensus augur.

“PCE inflation measures (Personal consumption Expenditure) are the most monitored by the members of the federal reserve, these are those used in the institution’s quarterly projections and which serve, among other indicators, to adjust the level of the rate range, “said Alexandre Baradez, IG France analyst before the publication of these key figures for the market. Over one year, prices increased by 2.3%, in accordance with market expectations.

According to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, the probabilities of dropping Fed Funds at the end of next month now exceed 20%.

To be continued this Monday, the PMI index of Chicago at 3:45 pm and a speech of C Lagarde, president of the ECB, at the Sintra forum, in Portugal.

Bovers remain alert before the publication of several important indicators this week, including the employment report, which will be published on Thursday. Advanced activity indicators (ISM, PMI) will also be published this week.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1720 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The release of the technical camisole is confirmed, coming to give more meaning to the supporting of the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).

The buying position on the spot can be kept as long as the oscillations are built between this trend curve and the high bollingger strips (20; 2.5).

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1729 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2213 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1539 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 484 pips and the risk of loss is 190 pips.

Daily data graphics