by Diana Mandia

PARIS (Reuters)-The main European scholarships are expected slightly on Thursday at the opening, helped by the hope of progress in trade negotiations after the announcement of an agreement between the United States and Vietnam the day before, and while investors are waiting for the key report on employment in the United States later.

The term contracts on indices suggest an opening up 0.22% for the Parisian CAC 40, 0.37% for the Dax in Frankfurt and 0.29% for the FTSE in London. The Stoxx 600 should open on an increase of 0.31%.

While commercial negotiations continue before the deadline of July 9, the announcement by US President Donald Trump Wednesday of an agreement with Vietnam including a 20% customs right on Vietnamese exports to the United States supports the feeling and fueling the hopes of new progress.

“Back music is increasingly favorable,” write Deutsche Bank analysts in a note published Thursday.

Charu Chanana, analyst at Saxo,, however, stresses that it is important to monitor China’s reaction to this agreement, as it also imposes a customs right of 40% on third -party goods passing through Vietnam.

“This is a clear signal that global supply chains are being reshaped and that other disturbances could arise,” he said.

The markets will also closely follow the publication of job creations figures in the United States, planned this youth at 12:30 p.m. GMT. This report will be watched all the more since the day before, the ADP survey on the private sector has surprised with the first destruction of jobs for more than two years.

For the moment, the resistance of the labor market is one of the main reasons why most members of the federal reserve claim that they may not reduce rates until they can assess the real impact of customs duties on inflation.

Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG, underlines the risk of seeing the unemployment rate as 4.4%rose, which would be its highest level since October 2021, and quickly increases the probability of resumption of rate reductions from the central bank.

Regarding the other macroeconomic indicators of the day, the market awaits the final PMI indices for the euro zone.

Investors also monitor the Donald Trump tax and expenses bill, which must be adopted by the House of Representatives, as well as British assets after a hectic session on Wednesday for obligations and the Sterling book, against the backdrop of concerns about the future of the Minister of Finance after the government was forced to back up its social benefits reduction plans.

A Wall Street

The New York Stock Exchange ended in order dispersed on Wednesday, the Dow Jones recording a slight decrease while the S&P-500 and the NASDAQ reached records, carried by technological values ​​and the announcement of a trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam.

The Dow Jones index sold 0.02%, the wider S & P-500 took 0.47%and the Nasdaq Composite advanced on its side of 0.94%.

In Asia

The Tokyo Stock Exchange grapped 0.06% Thursday, the uncertainty concerning commercial talks with the United States encouraging investors to prudence.

In China, the composite index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is advancing 0.21% and the CSI 300 of large capitalizations advances by 0.61%.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 0.78%, weighed down by technological values, investors fearing that the intensification of competition between electronic commerce would reduce beneficiary margins.

The action of the Alibaba electronic commerce giant listed in Hong Kong recedes almost 4%, after announcing a subsidy program of 50 billion yuan for merchants and customers on Wednesday.

Rate / change

Treasuries’ yields retreat slightly Thursday after a small increase the day before the background of worries on the Budget bill of the United States government.

The yield of the obligation at ten years loses 3.2 base points at 4.2612%. The two years fell by almost 2 base points to 3.7703%.

In the euro zone, the yield of the German Bund at ten years opened stable at 2.6210%. The two -year -old comes out of 1.8,600%.

The dollar is stable (+0.02%) in front of a basket of reference currencies, but remains close to a three and a half years lower.

The Sterling book lost 0.07% against the dollar, and advances 0.16% against the euro.

OIL

After the earnings of the previous session, oil prices fall on Thursday due to concerns about the weakness of American demand, government data having shown a surprise increase in American stocks in crude.

The Brent fell 0.78% to 68.57 dollars per barrel and the American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) from 0.77% to 66.93 dollars.

(Written by Diana Mandia, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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