(BFM Stock Exchange) – The video specialist on demand carbide on the stock market to the point of evolving in the world top 20 of the largest groups listed in the world. The company has large ambitions and intends to exceed $ 1,000 billion in market capitalization, according to the Wall Street Journal. Does it place the bar too high?

Certainly, Netflix is ​​one of the big boxes of Wall Street this year. The specialist in on -demand video has won 46.3% since January 1 and 90% over a year. This performance has nothing to envy to those of Wall Street’s “Seven Magnificent” (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla). For comparison, Nvidia took 15.20% in 2025 and 24.2% over a year and Meta won 20% in 2025 and 41% over one year*.

Netflix collects the fruits of its initiatives to monetize its audience further while expanding it (introduction of offers with advertising at the end of 2022, prohibition of account sharing in 2023).

“Some key themes are clear for Netflix activities: continuous concentration on strengthening its competitive positioning in long format streaming (including the increase in exposure to live entertainment), continuous increase in its advertising efforts, emphasized the execution of price increases in key markets and maintaining a balance between the increase in investments in the content, the expansion of the operating margin and to shareholders “, listed Goldman Sachs in January.

>> Access our exclusive graphic analyzes, and enter into the confidence of the trading portfolio

Netflix has “won the streaming war”

Netflix notably expanded its offer to diversify it to sport. The company acquired the rights of the boxing match between the former glory of the Mike Tyson Rings and the videographer Jake Paul, a duel who had gathered 108 million viewers in cumulative. Last winter, the platform broadcast two NFL games, the famous American football league during Christmas Day. According to Nielsen, these two games were simply the most watched streaming in the history of the United States, with nearly 65 million spectators.

The financial results followed. The accounts of the fourth quarter of 2024, published in late January last, reported recruitment of record subscribers, to 18.9 million units. Even during the pandemic, the company had not won as many customers. Revenues and profit per share had also exceeded expectations, $ 15 billion in share buybacks had been announced, and the action had taken 9.6% in stride.

The results of the first quarter remained on this good trend, with a profit by action superior to expectations and qualified perspectives “encouraging” by Bank of America. This even if the company has now stopped publishing, each quarter, its recruitments of subscribers.

Netflix has “already won the streaming war,” said Wolfe Research in April to Bloomberg Petero. “We think they are defining the future,” he added.

To the point that the group is already part of the stock market gratin. According to CompaniesmarketCap.com, Netflix is ​​in 18th place of the world’s largest groups in the world, with a market capitalization of $ 568 billion.

The group does not intend to stop there. In April, the Wall Street Journal reported ambitions shared by management during an internal meeting. The group’s General Staff planned to double revenues by 2030 and reach a market capitalization of $ 1,000 billion. This would be possible, in particular, by increasing penetration into emerging markets, such as India or Brazil, reported the business daily.

The question of valuation

Crossing the $ 1,000 billion mark would allow the group to enter a very select club, which only has a dozen companies. This would probably encourage investors to consider Netflix as a new member of the “Magnificent seven” (knowing that Broadcom is already hitting the door).

But does society not see too big? Bank of America, on value purchase, noted in May its objective of courses on the company. “Netflix was one of the most efficient companies in our coverage, and we continue to think that it is well positioned for the future,” wrote the bank.

The establishment then highlighted its promising catalog of outings for the second half of 2025, including the new season of the Korean massacre series series Squid game (arrived on June 27 on the platform) The new season of Wednesdaya spin-off of the Adams family, the new season of Stranger Things Or the film by Guillermo del Toro Frankenstein. The establishment considers that the company has an “growth avenue”, thanks in particular to “important opportunities” in advertising.

But its price of course of 1.490 dollars grants only a potential of 14.9% on the title, which would bring capitalization around 620-630 billion dollars.

More broadly, if the vast majority of analysts are purchasing on the title (18 out of 31), according to Investing.com, their course objective is below the current level of action (1,176 dollars against 1.337 dollars).

The valuation of Netflix remains a subject of debate. Charles Monot, of Monocle AM, underlined last week on News Bulletin 247 that the capitalization of groups like Microsoft or Meta was between $ 10 million and $ 20 million per employee, and around 15 million for a company like Ferrari, against 39 million for Netflix.

An unjustified level, according to him. “We say that there is a market they will take, except that in fact they have already taken it, they are present in two in three houses in the United States, their biggest market, they will not be able to grow more,” said the expert. “It’s too high,” he insisted.

At the beginning of 2024, Netflix estimated that the market for paid video services in the broad sense (including video games) represented $ 600 billion, a windfall of which it only captured (around 5%). The group also pointed out that its market share in video viewing did not exceed 10% in the countries where it is present.

Morningstar also points to the pitfall of valuation. The financial intermediary recently enhanced its “fair valuation” to 750 dollars against $ 720, which remains almost twice less than the current course.

Morningstar then carried out an advanced analysis which “strengthened (its) belief that the title is overvalued”. This while the financial intermediary judges that the group’s activity is “almost flawless”. But the market has integrated “unrealistic” growth prospects, argues Morningstar.

Last summer, the Bestbrokers.com site had established a list of actions likely to exceed $ 1,000 billion in market capitalization. Netflix was quoted, but the site wrote that this threshold could not be crossed until the 2030s.

Especially the methodology of Bestbrokers.com was simplistic. She was dirtying on the average annual increase in action since 2022 and extrapolated it over many years. However, to think that the hyper-era of the Netflix action will be maintained in the coming years is a challenge.

*Variations stopped at the end of Thursday July 3