(BFM Stock Exchange) – The big providers of the Parisian index, like LVMH but especially Stellantis, cross a delicate pass, while Totalnergies had to compose with lower oil prices in the first semester. In addition, Renault will lead the entire count with its loss of 9.5 billion euros linked to the depreciation of its Nissan shares.

Investors will still have to wait to dissect the results of the CAC 40. Groups belonging to the largest index of the Paris Stock Exchange will not make their copies until after mid-July.

If this season of publications will therefore only take off in a few days (Publicis will first deliver its accounts on July 17), investors can expect a drop in profits from CAC 40.

The trend is not limited to France. In a recent note, Deutsche Bank stresses that consensus (the average forecast of analysts) incorporates for the first half of withdrawal profits of 1% over one year for the groups of the Stoxx Europe 600, a pan -European index.

To return to CAC 40, his residents had gave cumulative net profits of 71.7 billion euros in the first half of 2024, according to a count then made by News Bulletin 247. By subtracting Vivendi to add Bureau Veritas (and thus reproduce the current composition of the CAC 40), the figure increases to 71.8 billion euros.

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Hard stellantis

This amount will probably be clear in the first six months of 2025. In the 2024 semi -annual results season, four groups (Totalenergies, LVMH, BNP Paribas and Stellantis) had generated 40% of total profits.

However, several of these four large providers cross a delicate pass. Stellantis, who had released 5.6 billion euros over the first six months of 2024, first. The automaker continued to suffer, in the first half of the half, from the fall of its volumes, penalized by the measures necessary to reduce its stocks, especially in North America.

In a note published at the end of June, Jefferies wrote that the results of the first semester of the company could mark a “low point” with a cash flow just in balance in North America.

The bank estimated that the profit per share could have melted by 79%, to 38 cents, against 1.87 euros over the first six months of 2024. Supposing that the consolidated net profit part of the group evolves more or less in the same direction, this would represent a fall of more than 4 billion euros in value.

LVMH, for its part, is faced with a demand at half mast for luxury products. In the first quarter, its sales fell 3% in comparable data, and the forecasts of Bank of America and UBS anticipate a new drop of 4% for the second quarter.

Throughout the first half, HSBC retains a decline of 30% of profit per share and net profit outside exceptional elements. UBS Table on a fall in 26% of the net profit per share.

Such variations would represent a drop of not far from 2 billion euros in value, LVMH having gave a semi -annual net profit of 7.3 billion euros last year, the second largest contribution in total of the CAC 40 behind totalnergies (8.7 billion euros).

Lower oil prices for totalnergies

The oil major, it does not suffer any particular difficulty. But, like the other big names in the sector, Totalenergies must deal with oil prices in clear decrease. In the first quarter of 2025, the profit had already fell by 33%, penalized by an average decrease in the barrel of Brent of approximately 9%. The second quarter may prove to be the same ilk. Brent prices stood up between 58.4 dollars and $ 79.4 a barrel over the period, according to Investing.com data. However, in the second quarter of 2024, the average price of the Brent chosen by the company had been 85 dollars.

In his note, Deutsche Bank stresses that consensus awaits a drop in profits for European companies in the “‘energy” sector (in reality mainly oil groups) of 23% in the first half. In addition, Totalenergies publishes its results in dollars. However, the greenback drops by 6.7% against the euro over a year, which will reduce the benefit when converted to the euro. Ultimately, the drop in net total benefit could represent several billion euros.

To a lesser extent, BNP Paribas should also see its net profit fall, due to a high comparison base, due in particular to exceptional elements which had inflated the accounts of the first half of 2024.

Over the first three months of 2025, the bank’s net profit fell 4.9% to 2.95 billion euros. For the second quarter, Bank of America retains a net profit of 3.1 billion euros, down 9% over one year. This would theoretically bring the half -yearly profit to 6.05 billion euros against 6.5 billion euros a year earlier.

Apart from this “Big Four”, other groups could see their profits drop. UBS anticipates a withdrawal of 8% of the benefit of Hermès which had generated 2.37 billion euros in net income last year.

The big accounting loss of Renault

Finally and not least, the benefits of CAC 40 will be strongly sealed by Renault for purely accounting reasons. On July 1, the car manufacturer announced a reprocessing of the valuation of its participation of just under 36% in the capital of Japanese Nissan, to wedge it on the stock market course. This will cause a loss of 9.5 billion euros in the first half in its net profit, certainly without influence on the cash or calculation of the dividend.

By retaining, alongside this, a half -yearly benefit excluding depreciation of Nissan’s participation in the waters of that of 2024 (1.8 billion euros), Renault would accuse a consolidated net loss of at least 7 billion euros.

Ultimately, on the basis of the companies mentioned in this article, the CAC 40 could leave with a delay in fifteen billion euros compared to 2024. It seems improbable that the other groups make it possible to fill such a difference.

However, this does not necessarily mean that the results season will be badly welcomed by investors. The expectations around the profits having been revised downwards, Deutsche Bank believes that, for Europe as a whole, the bar has been placed low enough for publications to offer “slight good surprises” to the market.

Let us also recall that net profit remains a very imperfect indicator of the performance of a company, because they are often affected by exceptional elements which do not necessarily have an impact on its financial health. The case of Renault illustrates this very well.