EUR/USD: customs dog

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The euro did not suffer from the new customs of customs by Donald Trump against the European Union, the selling forces on the single currency being largely counterbalanced by the prospects for the end of hegemony of the greenback in world trade.

The tenant of the White House now brandishes customs duties in the amount of 30% on imports from the member countries of the European Union. In the meantime, negotiations continue, with additional pressure.

“The European cycle which left slowly will be directly affected by these measures which limit the outlets of European companies. In the short term, this can have a disinflationist dimension since the products not exported to the US will be found on the European market. We have all fallen into the American trap since our cycle depends on the US consumer. The jaws of the trap close and create the doglit. late to compensate for the immediate shock that will affect European growth, “alerts Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum Asset Management.

Brussels, for his part, plays the card of appeasement. The European Union is delayed for the moment as to a possible counter-offensive. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that Europe still intended to favor “a negotiated solution”. “This remains the case and we will use the time we now have until August 1,” said the head of the European executive on Sunday.

“To be honest, a month ago, Trump threatened the European Union to impose customs duties of 50%, so it could be said that it is an improvement! The market generally thinks that it is a negotiation tactic and that such prices are unlikely to be applied,” comments Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank.

Statistically, traders will have noted the monthly prices increase in France by 0.4%, slightly above expectations (+0.3%), which allowed them to increase stable inflation in France. If this Monday will remain deserted in terms of decisive statistical publications, the week which will open will see the publication of American inflation tomorrow, sales of detail on Thursday, and the confidence index (U-Mich) of consumer confidence on Friday, still across the Atlantic.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1680 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The release of the technical camisole is confirmed, coming to give more meaning to the supporting of the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).

The buying position on the spot can be kept as long as the oscillations are built between this trend curve and the high bollingger strips (20; 2.5).

The relative force index (RSI) is in full convergence with the courses.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1683 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2464 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1499 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 781 pips and the risk of loss was 184 pips.

Daily data graphics