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The CAC 40 closed Tuesday’s session down 0.54% to 7,766 points, in any volumes, the index approaching its summer gravity center at 7,700 points, remaining insensitive to the new customs of Washington. The tenant of the White House now brandishes customs duties in the amount of 30% on imports from the member countries of the European Union. In the meantime, negotiations continue, with additional pressure.
“After having been spared on July 7, the European Union also underwent the American president’s fellow prices this Saturday with the announcement of the entry into force on August 1 of 30% customs duties on all European products imported into the United States. If the countermeasures have already been announced, negotiations are continuing behind the scenes. This situation is all the more comfortable for Donald Trump as it allows A kind of lyric cacophony around customs duties “, analyzes Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion.
For its part, the European Union has, for the time being, has timed as to potential response measures. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that Europe still intended to favor “a negotiated solution”.
“As the fateful date of July 9, the Trump administration has sent the first letters announcing new customs rights ranging from 20 % to 50 % to many countries not having signed trade agreements with the United States. At the same time, a decree was signed postponing the entry into force of customs duties to August 1, thus granting an additional period to negotiate an agreement”, summarize the EDMOND Rothschild.
“Trump has also announced its intention to impose an” floor “surcharge of 15 % to 20 % on all products from countries not directly targeted by specific customs duties, a rate higher than the current” standard “rate of 10 %. Now that the” Big Beautiful Bill “has been approved by the two chambers, the American administration must finance this legislation, which will lead to an increase in deficits in the coming years.”
The markets also paid attention to the announcement of the savings plan of 43.8 billion euros of the French government for 2026. The Prime Minister, François Bayrou, said he wanted to bring the public deficit to 4.6% in 2026 to increase to 2.8% in 2029. Which, in his plan, will go through a “white year”, in 2026, during which the state expenditure (excluding defense and debt. even as social benefits. This plan, which must be amended and voted by Parliament, is therefore far from final.
In the statistical chapter, the main figure on Tuesday was undoubtedly the dynamics of consumer prices in the United States, stands out at +2.7% in annualized pace, of little above expectations for the widest product basket.
In addition, the operators composed with the publication of the ZEW index of confidence in the German economy by the eponymous institute. The score, awaited up to 50.8, exceeded expectations by emerging at 52.7.
“After the strong improvements of the last two months, the positive feeling of the respondents is confirmed,” comments Professor Achim Wambach, the president of the ZEW.
“Despite the persistent uncertainty linked to global commercial conflicts, almost two thirds of experts anticipate an improvement in the German economy. The hope of rapid resolution of the pricing conflict between the United States and the EU, as well as any economic recovery measures provided by the German government’s immediate investment program, seem to influence the general feeling. This increased optimism is reflected in particular in clear expectations for clearly improved expectations Mechanical engineering and metal production, followed by the electrical industry. “
On the values side, L’Oréal lost 1.5% suffered from a recommendation lowering from Barclays to “under-ponder” against “overlapping” previously. Punctual profits were to be noted on a number of files depending on military spending, like Dassault Aviation (-2.47%), Thalès (-2.59%) or exosens (-3.44%). Note the renault warning (result warning), published yesterday after the fence. Finally, Stellantis announced the end of his participation in the joint venture formed with Forvia and Michelin on the development of the hydrogen battery.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the Tuesday session in dispersed order, the Dow Jones losing 0.98% and the Nasdaq Composite grappling 0.18%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 0.40% to 6,243 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1620. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 66.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.47%. As for the Vix, it was worth 17.38 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow primarily production of production prices in the United States at 2:30 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The release of the technical camisole is confirmed, coming to give more meaning to the supporting of the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).
The buying position on the spot can be kept as long as the oscillations are built between this trend curve and the high bollingger strips (20; 2.5).
The relative force index (RSI) is in full convergence with the courses.
The index is currently in the sweater phase (graphic rejection).
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7810.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7700.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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