CAC 40: Resistance force under 7,900 points

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After a candle with a very pronounced red body on Monday, the CAC traced a very long wick candle on Tuesday. So certainly the courses remain firm after the trade agreement signed between Washington and Beijing, but graphic analysis shows a legitimate questioning of market stakeholders.

As a reminder, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, have established a trade agreement reducing the customs duties imposed by the United States on European imports at 15%. Without common ground, Washington would have inflicted customs taxes of 30% on Europe from August 1.

This agreement, described as “larger” never concluded in terms of trade by Donald Trump, includes a certain number of exceptions, with products taxed at 0% on the part of the two business partners, including aeronautical equipment, equipment for semiconductors, and certain agricultural products. But not alcoholic products whose fate must be decided “in the coming days,” said Ursula von der Leyen.

The text also provides that Europeans will buy $ 750 billion in energy products (oil, but also nuclear fuel) from the United States and will invest $ 600 billion in the country.

“If some are delighted with the predictability and certainty associated with the unbalanced trade agreement between the United States and Europe, they are heavily mistaken,” says Bruno Colmant, an economist member of the Royal Academy of Belgium.

“They are, in fact, in error, for multiple reasons: these agreements will be fluctuating, mobile and plastic depending on the circumstances. They will be penalizing compared to the great agreement that the United States will sign with China, in a commercial reciprocity which will be beneficial to the two countries, and therefore negative for Europe. And above all, a new condition will soon be imposed: the obligation for the partners in the United States Long -term issued by the American Treasury, whose debt is in stratospheric. “

This Wednesday, it is also “Fed Day” … The operators will take an attentive eye at the outcome tomorrow evening of the Fed Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC). Not that a suspense on the rates is unbearable – a status quo is acquired -, but the stakeholders will gauge the tone communicated to give more fine probabilities to a possible monetary relaxation in the fall.

In any case for this summer FOMC, the latest macroeconomic figures to date, in particular on the front of domestic consumption, campaign for a status quo on the remuneration of Fed Funds. The Fedwatch tool of the CME Group is 97% figures the probabilities of status quo, to the chagrin of Donald Trump, who continues to have his requirement to see the guiding rates melt, treating the pattern of the Fed of “Nigaud” …

“As long as Fed’s decisions continue to be guided by economic data, and not by political pressures, we anticipate a drop in rates of 100 base points by June 2026”, anticipates Claudia Panseri, Chief Investment Officer, UBS WM France, UBS Europe SE, branch of France. “This development will further erode the value of liquidity deposits, thus strengthening the attraction of quality obligations, including American treasure bills (of a five -year maturity), which, in our view, should retain their central role in the global financial system”

In the statistical chapter on Tuesday, operators learned about employment data with new offers (Jolts), slightly below expectations. On the other hand, the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) believed 97.2 far beyond the target, confirming the excellent health of domestic consumption, structurally the first engine of national wealth creation across the Atlantic.

On the values side, Essilorluxottica won 6.90% after delivering online semi -annual results with expectations and gave encouraging indications for the second half. increased by 1.7% while the profitability of the group increased faster than hoped by analysts in the first half. Orange won 2.1% while the telecoms group unveiled “robust results which augur a new increase in the dividend”, according to the independent alphavalue design office. As a sharp drop at the opening, Stellantis closes on a slight gain of 0.1% after revealing disappointing prospects for the second half of 2025.

Safran and Airbus gained 2.1% and 1% respectively. In a note published on Tuesday, Royal Bank of Canada wrote that Safran, which will later publish its half -yearly results this week, raises its objectives for 2025. Excluding CAC 40, Rexel has rebounded 5.5% after having published greater growth in expectations in the first half. TF1 won 6.2% after publishing a little better activity than waiting in the second quarter thanks to the acceleration of its TF1+streaming platform.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares dropped a few points on Tuesday, the Dow Jones contracting by 0.64% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.38%, while the pace of quarterly accounts is intensified. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, lost 0.30% to 6,370 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1550. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 69.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.32%. As for the Vix, it was worth 15.98 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to be followed in priority across the Atlantic, the results of the ADP monthly survey on employment at 2:30 p.m. and the Fed press conference at 8:30 p.m. The highly anticipated preliminary data of German GDP will be published at 10:00 am.

Key graphics elements

The release of technical camisole was confirmed on 07/07, giving more meaning to the support on the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue); And the index has just validated a phase of sweater (graphic rejection).

Now, a tidy (lateral canal) with an amplitude of 400 points is sketched, between 7,500 and 7,900 points. It is this resistance to 7,900 points that is currently tested. A test for the moment in the form of failure. A failure corroborated by the session of Monday July 28, materialized by a candle with a long red body, almost without shadow, or low.

This tidy is wide (400 points), and will constitute the theater of the expression of oscillations of the next few weeks.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7900.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics