EUR/USD: Fed movement

Key graphics elements

This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.
The Euro-Dollar has remained neutral in recent hours in a context marked by major political and monetary developments in the United States, combining white house announcements, contrasting macroeconomic statistics and increased expectations around the federal reserve.

On the institutional level, Donald Trump appointed Stephen Miran, president of the Council of Economic Advisers and supporter of a monetary relaxation, to temporarily occupy a vacant seat in the Fed Governors’ Council. This decision comes while the White House also seeks a successor to Jerome Powell, whose mandate at the head of the Central Bank expires in May 2026. If this provisional appointment does not change the balance of the short -term Fed, it nevertheless feeds the perception of an increasing political influence on the institution, strengthening anticipations of lower rates in September. The markets now integrate 93 % a reduction in the key rate at the next meeting, with at least two flexibility expected by the end of the year.

On the macroeconomic side, the latest American employment data confirmed a shortness of breath. Post creations in July emerged lower than expectations, while the previous two months have been revised sharply. Weekly unemployed registrations have increased, with 226,000 initial requests and a higher since November 2021 for continuous requests (1.97 million). At the same time, the New York Fed survey highlighted a rise in inflation expectations at 3.1 % to one year and 2.9 % at five years, reflecting the potential impact of customs duties decided by the Trump administration. These inflationary tensions, deemed temporary by certain monetary officials but potentially persistent by others, complicate the trajectory of short -term monetary policy.

From a graphic point of view, the EUR/USD pair still evolves in a well -established bullish trend. The buying pressure remains manifest, materialized by the formation of green candles of large amplitude during the rebound phase. This behavior reflects the ability of buyers to quickly regain control after each technical withdrawal, thus consolidating the upward dynamics. The trend would remain valid as long as the courses are maintained above the main intermediate supports, with a potential for prosecution towards major resistance if the bullish momentum is confirmed.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,6600 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is at 1.2000 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1380 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 4,600 pips and the risk of loss is 5220 pips.

Daily data graphics