CAC 40: A potential agreement on Ukraine revives European clues

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The CAC 40 ended yesterday up 0.97 %, in the wake of the main European squares, carried by optimism surrounding the prospect of a possible agreement between Washington and Moscow on Ukraine. This anticipation has favored a clear sectoral rotation: the travel and leisure compartment was sought with a flight of the Accor title of 5.36 % for example, while the values of the defense suffered. Thales fell by 3.06 % and Rheinmetall fell by 7.99 %, the latter also suffering from a quarterly turnover of 2.43 billion euros, lower than market expectations, due to delays on certain German army contracts and additional costs on its Weeze site. However, the group maintains its 2025 objectives and plans to bring its order book to 120 billion euros by mid-2026, against 63.2 billion in the first half.

At Wall Street, the fence was contrasted with a decline in the 0.51 %Dow Jones, the S & P 500 from 0.08 %to 6,340 points, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.32 %. Investors have integrated both macroeconomic signals and institutional announcements. Continuous requests for unemployment benefits have set up to 1.97 million at the end of July, a higher since November 2021, and initial requests have been established at 226,000. The monthly survey of the New York Fed showed an increase in inflation anticipations at 3.1 % over a year and 2.9 % over five years, at the highest since February, more difficult credit and a default rate 2020, in a context of slowing down hiring and withdrawal of consumption in the first half.

On the monetary front, Donald Trump proposed Stephen Miran, current president of the Council of Economic Advisers and supporter of a rapid drop in rates, to the post of governor of the Federal Reserve until January, replacing Adriana Kugler, a appointment still subject to the approval of the Senate.

On the values side, Apple won 3.18 % thanks to the announcement of American customs duties by 100 % on imported semiconductors, with exemptions for manufacturers already located in the United States or in the process of being. The technological segment took advantage of it, AMD taking 5.69 % and Lam Research 3.35 %, while Intel lost 3.14 % after political pressures aimed at its general manager for alleged conflict of interest with Chinese companies. Fortinet fell by 22.03 %: if its adjusted profit in the third quarter exceeded expectations, its turnover forecasts disappointed despite the increase in its annual billing objectives.

The market was also led yesterday by the health sector: Novo Nordisk gained up to 14% in session after the results deemed less efficient than expected from a direct competitor, Eli Lilly, strengthening its dominant position in the anti-obeyity treatment market.

In Paris, Airbus could lead the session after announcing the delivery in July of 67 commercial aircraft to 41 customers, compared to 77 a year earlier, due to persistent provisioning drivers for the A320. Since the beginning of the year, the group has delivered 373 aircraft and recorded seven gross orders over the month, for an annual total of 501 gross orders and 405 nets after cancellations.

Sanofi is also under the spotlight after adjustments of course objectives by the major investment banks, while Munich Re in Germany has lowered its 2025 turnover forecast for its insurance branch while maintaining its profit objective, and that Bpost has published results above expectations thanks to the integration of Staci.

Finally, the American decision to impose customs duties on one kilo gold ingots, disrupts Swiss exports and causing a leap in the prices to the term contracts. Oil is retreating during a seventh decline sessions, operators believing that a possible United States/Russia agreement on Ukraine would reduce the probability of a supply shock on Russian crude.

Key graphics elements

Technically, the Parisian index has crossed the resistance of the 7,682 points yesterday and started the filling of the drop-down Gap from last week, signaling an underlying buying pressure likely to allow it to close it completely. In the event of withdrawal around 50 % of the body of yesterday’s candle, operators could reposition themselves in the direction of the very short -term upward trend in order to accompany the pursuit of the movement.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index rating above the support at 7682.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics