CAC 40: American inflation online in sight

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European places finished down yesterday, penalized by a revival of prudence before several major macroeconomic meetings. CAC 40 sold 0.57 % to 7,698 points. Investors have also reacted to several marking titles movements, such as the correction of 3.64 % of Hermès after a lowering of course target by RBC, or the spectacular fall of 29.85 % of Orsted, a consequence of a massive capital increase to finance its American offshore Sunrise Wind wind project. In Germany, Commerzbank increased by almost 4 % following an upward revision of its income prospects, while Rheinmetall fell in a context of speculation on a truce in Ukraine before the meeting scheduled for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Friday.

At Wall Street, the trend was also negative, the S&P 500 losing 0.25 % at 6,373 points and the NASDAQ 100 0.36 % at 23,526 points. Tesla, however, evolved against the current with an increase of 2.85 %. The session was largely animated by a new Salve of Ads from Donald Trump. The American president has extended the pricing truce with China by three months, pushing any increase in customs duties on November 10, and temporarily preserving bilateral commitments on rare land and certain technologies. Discussions remain open to more sensitive subjects such as fentanyl, Russian and Iranian oil, or even access to American companies to the Chinese market.

The semiconductor sector was at the center of attention. Trump plans to authorize Nvidia for sale in China a lightened version of his Blackwell chip, while maintaining a 15 % federal levy on H20 sales and AMD MI308 chips. These concessions, perceived as a commercial gesture more than strategic, intervene while Beijing recommended this morning to avoid the use of H20 for reasons of national security. Intel, for its part, benefited from a more conciliatory tone of the White House towards its manager, opening the door to discussions on government support.

On the microeconomic front, Apple was targeted by new accusations of Elon Musk, saying that the App Store favored Openai to the detriment of its own Grok. Musk announced that XAI would initiate prosecution for violation of antitrust rules. Warner Bros Discovery won 8 %, despite results above expectations, weighed down by the decline in traditional television income and prudent prospects for the current quarter.

The day will be punctuated by the publication at 2:30 p.m. of American inflation in July, with a consensus tabling on 0.2 % for the overall index and 0.3 % for the Core index. These figures could influence anticipations of decreasing Fed rates in September, probability estimated at more than 80 %. In Europe, investors will also follow the publication at 11:00 am ZEW indices of economic feeling for Germany and the euro zone, expected respectively at -65 and 28.1 points, while in the United States, the results of Coreweave and we holder will complete the table.

Key graphics elements

Technically, the index failed to fill the lower gap and to cross the mobile averages, thus returning to a first support area, considered as a purchase zone by operators in intraday data. A fence under 7,682 points would accentuate the selling pressure and increase the risk of a recent lower back, around the 7,500 points.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index rating above the support at 7682.00 points.

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