CAC 40: Tech still under pressure, markets in balance before Jackson Hole

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The markets finished yesterday’s session on a hesitant tone, marked by a growing contrast between the two banks of the Atlantic. In the United States, the clues have sold ground, drawn by the pursuit of clearances on major technological values, while in Europe, the atmosphere was more nuanced, between general consolidation and a few pockets of sectoral resistance. The correction of the Nasdaq, nourished by the doubts surrounding artificial intelligence and valuations that have become demanding, weighed on the morale of investors, while European places, although withdrawn, remained better oriented, carried in particular by the defensive sectors and the basic consumption.

Macroeconomic news has remained dense. In Europe, inflation has confirmed its anchoring at 2 %, with stable core inflation at 2.3 %, attesting to the persistence of underlying tensions which maintain the ECB on a line of prudence. In Germany, production prices have further fell, a sign of a subsidence of industrial demand. In the United States, the minutes of the federal reserve have highlighted unprecedented differences for its members. A majority considers that the inflationist risk remains preponderant, fueled by customs duties decided by the Trump administration, while others argue for a rapid drop in rates in order to counter the slowdown in employment and a rise in unemployment to 4.2 %. Jerome Powell, who has to speak to Jackson Hole, strives to spare these fracture lines. Political tension adds to nervousness: President Trump directly called for the resignation of Lisa Cook, the governor of the Fed, against the backdrop of accusations, once again illustrating the harshness of the relationship between the White House and the Central Bank. In the background, speculation persists around possible peace talks in Ukraine, without concrete progress at this stage, each camp camping on its positions.

On the microeconomic level, several publications hosted the session. Estée Lauder warned that the customs prices would amputate its results up to $ 100 million, while revealing a clear loss in clear aggravation, a consequence of depreciation on some of its brands. The group adjusts its strategy, with targeted price reductions and a refocusing of its production outside the United States.

Coty also struck the alarm with degraded perspectives, anticipating a significant drop in its comparable sales, which has led to a new fall in its title, already heavily sanctioned since the beginning of the year.

In Europe, Danone has distinguished itself positively, benefiting from a renewed interest linked to good dynamics observed in its competitor EMMI and to the indirect effects of weight loss treatments in the United States, which modify eating behavior in favor of yogurts.

Schneider Electric, on the other hand, has undergone profits, penalized by the decline in the technological sector across the Atlantic.

Airbus benefited from the announcement of an order from New Zealand to modernize its fleet, confirming the central role of the aircraft manufacturer in the international defense and air transport programs.

Tesla, finally, rejected the production of its Y model in America, while accelerating its deployment in China, highlighting the group’s strategic arbitrations in a context where autonomous driving captures most of the resources.

Today, investors will have their eyes on a series of crucial indicators. On the macro side, the day will be punctuated by the PMI indices in Europe and the United States, the weekly unemployed inscriptions and the manufacturing index of the Philadelphia Fed, without forgetting the sales of existing housing. These data will specify the state of the economic situation before the highly anticipated speech of Jerome Powell tomorrow in Jackson Hole.

On the business side, the session will be led by the publications of Walmart, Intuit, Workday and Zoom in the United States. The attention will also focus on the evolution of technological values, under pressure after the restrictions imposed by Beijing on orders from Nvidia chips, a development which illustrates the tightening of the Sino-American technological iron.

Key graphics elements

The scenario presented yesterday morning took place as anticipated, with a test of the resistance that has become support, thus validating the principle of polarity change. From now on, all withdraws around 7,950 points is an opportunity to purchase for a continuation of the Haussier movement beyond the 8,000 points. On the other hand, a fence under 7,850 points would weaken this scenario.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index above the support at 7941.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics