CAC 40: Pending Jackson Hole

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

Thursday’s session confirmed the persistent nervousness of the financial markets. Wall Street has chained a new decline, weighed down by a fifth consecutive session of withdrawal from the S&P 500 and a Nasdaq still under pressure. In Europe, the trend has remained indecisive, the CAC 40 giving in the field, in particular penalized by the values ​​of spirits, weakened by the trade agreement concluded between Washington and Brussels which imposes a price of 15 % on many European exports, without exemption for wine and spirits.

The economic climate has fueled the confusion of investors. American PMIs have surprised positively, reaching their highest levels for more than two years, a sign of resilience of manufacturing and services, but at the cost of persistent inflation supplied by customs duty increases. In mirror, the job market shows breathless signals: weekly unemployment benefits have climbed their highest since November 2021, confirming a gradual slowdown. This ambivalence blurs anticipations on monetary policy.

The federal reserve is at the center of attention, while Jackson Hole’s annual symposium opens. The internal divisions stand out clearly: some governors highlight inflationary pressures in the services, others envisage rate reductions if employment deteriorates, reflecting a still uncertain guideline. To this tense climate is added political pressure: Donald Trump accentuates his attacks on Jerome Powell, while Governor Lisa Cook is targeted by an investigation that weakens the image of independence of the Fed. The markets remain convinced of a drop in rate in September, but the probability of this scenario was slightly reduced after the publication of PMIs.

On the business side, Walmart has disappointed with a profit below expectations, sanctioned on the stock market by a marked decline, even if the group noted its annual forecasts.

In technology, Meta continues its offensive in AI by recruiting Apple key talents and concluding a massive contract with Google Cloud, while Nvidia is weakened by the suspension of the production of its H20 chip intended for China, opening a boulevard in Huawei and Cambcon.

Boeing, for its part, tries to conclude a historic order of 500 planes with China, dependent on diplomatic appeasement, while facing a strike of 3,200 employees in Saint-Louis which disrupts the production of F-5 and F/A-18.

In Europe, the luxury and spirits compartment weighed heavily in Paris. Pernod Ricard, LVMH and Rémy Cointreau corrected the ads on the transatlantic trade agreement. Conversely, Rheinmetall and Novo Nordisk supported the respective indices of Frankfurt and northern Europe.

Finally, Carmat’s situation focuses on the Parisian coast. In receivership since July, the Medtech announced that it has received a takeover offer filed by its president Pierre Bastid via its company Hougou. This proposal will be examined again at the end of September by the court, the buyer having injected 1.3 million euros to finance the cash flow by then. The company warns, however, that the outcome remains uncertain and that liquidation remains a major risk, leaving little hope for shareholders and creditors in the event of failure.

The fragile balance between economic resilience and political tensions maintains investors in expectation. The keystone of this week will be played at 4:00 p.m. Paris time, with the speech of Jerome Powell to Jackson Hole.

Key graphics elements

Technically, the Parisian index has successfully tested its support for the 7,941 points, confirming the relevance of this threshold. The invalidation of the short -term bullish trend is therefore clear. In the event of acceleration, the index could quickly reach the 8,200 points area.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index above the support at 7941.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics