(BFM Stock Exchange) – Precious metal courses display an increase of 29% in 2025. The design offices are confident on the prospects of the raw material, seeing gold crossing the symbolic bar of 4,000 dollars per year next year.

If gold broke its records a little less frequently than at the beginning of the year, its performance over the whole of 2025 remains impressive.

The “barbaric relic”, as the illustrious economist John Maynard Keynes called it, wins 29%

Since January 1.

“Gold is back at the top of the classification of asset classes for 2025: its increase (…) Since the beginning of the year has surpaid all the main stock and bond indices, the G10 currencies and even Bitcoin,” UBS wrote in a note published on Monday.

The bulk of the progression of the precious metal occurred from January to May, the gold having fully benefited from its status of value refuge when the uncertainty on the economic policy of Donald Trump, in particular on customs duties, rocked the equity markets. Gold exceeded $ 3,000 per ounce (31.1 grams) in March. The $ 3,500 threshold was hit on April 22.

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Dollar drop and independence of the Fed

In addition to geopolitical risks and economic risks caused by American customs surcharge, gold prices were also supported by repeated attacks by the Trump administration towards the American Federal Reserve (Fed) and its president, Jerome Powell, regularly tangled by the White House resident.

These fears fueled, in the spring, a withdrawal of investors from risky assets, such as actions, to deport themselves to refuge values, such as gold. Deutsche Bank then mentioned a “rush to the refuge values”. This phenomenon then diminished in June and this summer, the American actions indices with the hair of the beast.

A technical factor has also played: the drop in the dollar. Since the beginning of the year, the “Dxy” index, which has been measuring the greenback performance against a panel of major international currencies, falls of 10%

.

Like all raw materials, gold courses are labeled in dollar. A decline in the greenback makes, all other things being equal, the gold less expensive for investors whose reference currency is not the dollar.

Purchases of central banks are also long -term support for gold courses. In a recent survey by World Gold Council, 43% of the central bankers interviewed said that their own central bank would increase their gold and 95% reserves that the official gold reserves would continue to increase over the next 12 months.

Persistent inflation

Note that, two weeks ago, gold courses were briefly supported by press information reporting that the United States would impose customs surcharge on imports of certain gold bars. This threatened to increase the cost of ‘trading’ (market operations) in the place of New York.

The US administration then promised to rectify the shot and Donald Trump himself declared on his social social network that the gold bars would not undergo customs from customs.

After the sharp increase in gold, can the prices of raw material still climb? The design offices respond to unison in the affirmative, the question relating more to the rhythm of this increase.

UBS noted its forecasts on Monday, tabling on an ounce at 3,500 dollars at the end of the year, at 3,600 dollars at the end of March then at 3,700 dollars at the end of June.

The Swiss bank highlighted several elements justifying the increase in the rise in gold prices.

“First of all, we believe that the combination of persistent inflation in the United States (the effects of customs duties and the repression of immigration is not yet fully felt), of American growth lower than the trend, which should encourage the Fed (the American Federal Reserve, editor’s note) to resume its monetary softening, and a new general depreciation of the US dollar Gold “, explained the Swiss establishment.

Friday, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, opened at the door to a drop in rates next month, without going too much in this way. “The speech of the president of the Fed, (Jerome) Powell, in Jackson Hole, was more accommodating than expected, highlighting the risks of slightly larger decrease on the labor market,” sums up Deutsche Bank.

According to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, investors attribute a probability of 91.2% to a cup of 25 base points (0.25 percentage points), a figure which was less than 70% before the central banker’s speech.

As a reminder, lower rates tend to support gold. Unlike actions (with dividends) and obligations (with coupons), gold does not produce income. Its course is therefore helped by a decrease in interest rates, because it then becomes more and more interesting to invest your money in gold rather than placing it.

Towards a structural increase cycle

UBS also cited several factors of uncertainty in the coming months likely to strengthen the attraction of metal with investors.

“Trends in dedollarization, issues relating to the independence of the Fed and the viability of the budgetary situation in the United States (in particular if the Supreme Court invalidates the ‘reciprocal” administration’ customs rights) should remain at the center of investors’ concerns until 2026 “, listed the Swiss Bank.

Other financial intermediaries see gold rising even higher and tu or even exceed 4,000 dollars per ounce.

In June, Bank of America estimated that this threshold could be crossed if the United States continued to display high deficits and whether market volatility persisted.

The same month, the JPMorgan bank had raised its forecasts, tabling on an ounce of gold with an average course of 3.675 dollars in the last quarter of 2025 before crossing the $ 4,000 in mid-2026.

“We remain deeply convinced of a structurally upward and continuous investment thesis for gold courses,” explained Natasha Kanevan, director of the Raudious materials strategy at JPMorgan.

The American bank expected that the gold purchases of central banks remain raised, with 900 tonnes of gold this year, after 1,045 tonnes in 2024. The establishment was also counting on dynamic purchases on the part of the index funds (ETF), noting that they had already taken off on the first part of 2025.

Traditionally, ETF’s purchases are motivated by rate reductions, which could take place next September on the side of the American federal reserve. According to the Fedwatch tool of the CME Group, investors attribute a probability of 85% to a reduction in guiding rates by a quarter of a point from the American central bank next month, and anticipate cut rate cuts from a percentage point by twelve months.

“We believe that the advantages of gold as a refuge value will continue to feed the additional ETF demand outside the traditional engine of the decline in real yields,” said Gregory Shearer, of JPMorgan.

Goldman Sachs has fairly similar forecasts. The American bank tables an ounce of gold at 3.700 dollars by the end of 2025 and 4,000 dollars in mid-2026. Like JPMorgan, it points to the continuous appetite of central banks for gold and the rise of gold purchases of ETFs which should benefit from rate reductions from the Fed.