CAC 40: Two technical poles alternately loose courses

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

The luxury sector will have enabled the CAC 40 to run out on Wednesday (+0.44% to 7,743 points), after two sessions of sharp decline in the wake of the announcement, by François Bayrou, to engage the responsibility of his government by a vote of trust on September 08.

“With political uncertainty, what comes back in France remains the risk of a decrease in consumption or an increase in taxation. Investors want to reduce their exposure to France and luxury groups are therefore precisely under-exposed to France,” said an analyst.

Only 4 titles has posted a positive assessment since the start of the week: L’Oréal (+0.56%), Hermès (+1.15%), LVMH (+1.39%), and Kering (+2.55%). Conversely, files very exposed to domestic, tax or public issues, are heavily penalized, like Société Générale (-10.1%) or Vinci (-10.3%).

“Immediately, the markets took note of the new uncertainties generated by this situation, in particular by doing – modestly – climbing the rate of the country’s debt and preferring to remain prudent on the French equity clues. The euro itself has been the subject of a few profits. The nervousness should remain the dominant feeling until the vote,” notes Wilfrid Galand – strategist at Montpensier.

In the case of anticipated legislative elections, “volatility could then be strong, according to the various polls and up to the elections (which must be held within 20 days minimum and 40 days maximum after the dissolution decree. It could affect all the assets of the euro zone including the single currency, with France always on the front line. An output of the OAT to 10 years of the OAT is a risk”.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares grabbed a few points, in the wait -and -see position before the publication, after Stock Exchange, of the quarterly copy of Nvidia. The Dow Jones nibbled 0.32% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.21%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.24% at 6,481 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1640. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 63.60. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.22%. As for the Vix, it was worth 14.85 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow at 2:30 p.m. two American benchmarks: weekly registrations for unemployment benefits and preliminary GDP data in the 2nd quarter.

Key graphics elements

The vast range (lateral channel), whose amplitude has once again been redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal comes to confirm it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. These are therefore intervention areas to favor.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index rating above the support at 7682.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics