by Mara Vilcu
(Reuters) – European scholarships are in green Monday in mid -session, while investors digest the publication of the figures for the PMI indices and continue to assess the threats to the independence of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), while concerns remain on the political situation in France and the stability of the Bayrou government.
Wall Street is closed today due to a holiday. In Paris, the CAC 40 earns 0.08% at 7,710.33 points around 11:13 a.m. GMT. In Frankfurt, the Dax advances 0.41% and in London, the FTSE 100 rises by 0.09%.
The Eurostoxx 50 index increased by 0.25%, the FTSEUROFITS 300 advance of 0.16%and the Stoxx 600 rises by 0.14%.
The first session in September marks the beginning of a month historically characterized by strong fluctuations on the markets, the period being conducive to the reassessment of portfolios and promising to be risky for investors.
In terms of economic data, the activity of the Manufacturer sector of the euro zone has progressed in August for the first time since mid-2022, carried by an increase in domestic demand and production, according to a survey of business leaders published on Monday.
Regarding French policy, the vote of trust requested by Prime Minister François Bayrou on September 8 could lead to the fall of the government and feed the political instability which weighs on the prospects for growth.
The United States should be at the center of attention during the rest of the week, with the publication of a series of data, including surveys on manufacturing industry and services, as well as employment figures, the culmination of which will be the salary report in August Friday.
“Even if the inflation and growth data alone do not justify a drop in rates, at this stage, it would probably take a very positive surprise on the employment front to prevent the Fed from continuing on this path, taking into account its concerns about the marked slowdown in employment lately,” said Michael Feroli, chief economist for the United States.
According to Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, “the job market is the number one factor which determines the monetary policy of the federal reserve. The Fed and the financial commentators claim that the slowdown in the job market will lead to a drop in rates in September, but the situation is not as clear”. “So it’s a decisive week,” he said.
On the commercial front, an American court of appeal judged on Friday that most of the customs duties imposed by President Donald Trump were illegal, a decision which should be appealed to the Supreme Court.
Investors will also be attentive to the attacks of the White House tenant against the independence of the Fed, the governor of the Fed Lisa Cook preparing to present on Tuesday new arguments against his dismissal.
Values ​​in Europe
Novo Nordisk is up approximately 3% after announcing that its weight loss drug Wegovy reduced heart risks by 57% compared to competing treatments by Eli Lilly.
RATE
German yields are changing little.
The yield of the German Bund at ten years is advancing from 1.0 base points to 2.7333%. The two years lost 0.1 base point at 1.9437%.
Changes
The dollar reached its lowest level on Monday in five weeks, investors impatiently awaiting the publication this week of a series of data on the American labor market which could influence anticipations concerning the FED monetary easing policy.
The dollar loses 0.14% against a basket of reference currencies.
The euro earns 0.32% to $ 1.1721.
OIL
Oil prices are increasing, concerns related to the increase in production and the impact of American customs duties on demand that have counterbalanced the disruption of the supply resulting from the intensification of air strikes between Russia and Ukraine and the pressure exerted by the weakness of the dollar.
Brent advances 0.87% to 68.07 dollars per barrel and light American crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) gained 1% at 64.65 dollars.
No more main economic indicator at the September 1 agenda
(Some data may accuse a slight offset)
(Written by Mara Vîlcu, edited by Augustin Turpin)
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