CAC 40: E Macron in search of his 7th Prime Minister

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While the American employment health assessment is no longer as flourishing, the CAC 40 lost land during the session on Friday, to close in contraction of 0.31% to 7,674 points. It is also this Monday that François Bayrou engages the responsibility of his government in a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, a vote whose chances of success for the Palois are Epsilonesque.

The content of this NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) only confirms the (very) slight deterioration in private employment health across the Atlantic. In detail, this federal report for the whole month of August highlights a slight increase in the unemployment rate, to 4.3% of the active population, in the target defined by consensus. Target also reached for the average increase in hourly wages (+0.3%). On the other hand – and it is there that the rub -, the creations of posts in the private sector excluding agriculture, expected to decrease at 75,000, in fact point to 22,000.

What even confirm the scenario of a decrease of 25 basic points of the Fed Funds remuneration after the FOMC on September 17. It is certainly a source of relief, largely anticipated it is true, for the equity markets, but it is also a first sign of slowing down the American economic machine, hitherto launched at full speed. Especially since operators have a still crying for visibility on customs duties.

“This employment report corroborates the thesis of a strong slowdown in the labor market and certain members of the FOMC (the Monetary Policy Committee, Editor’s note), of which Christopher Waller, will now request a drop in rate of 50 basis during the September 17 Committee. The annual revisions published on September 9 could make it possible to decide between a drop in the Fed of 25 and a decrease of 50 points,” Strategy and economic studies at CPRAM.

On the values ​​side, Stmicroelectronics ends the week at the top of the CAC 40 (+3.8%), supported by BNP Paribas Exane which noted its recommendation to outperformance and its price of course at 26 euros. At the tail of the peloton, we find Société Générale which sold 1.9%, followed by totalnergies (-1.8%) with the net with oil prices. Note that OPEC+ has just announced an increase in its production: 137,000 barrels per day in October 2025 compared to the level of production required in September.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session on Friday in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.48%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.03%). The S & P500, a barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 0.32% to 6,481 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1710. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 62.55. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.09%. As for the Vix, it was worth 15.18 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow in priority the index felt of investor confidence in the euro zone at 10:30 am.

Key graphics elements

The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7940.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7512.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics