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The OAT10 years remained stable after the appointment, yesterday in the evening, of Sébastien Lecornu to the post of Prime Minister to replace François Bayrou, who returned his resignation letter to the President of the Republic after the failure of the vote of confidence in the National Assembly. The Minister of Army resigned, ex Sarkozist, is a faithful of the Head of State. And even if his political pedigree is significantly different from the pure centrist François Bayrou, the market should see only a change in continuity, namely:
The era of political instability in France continues, with a threat of censorship immediately of the RN. Socialists have said that he would not a priori censor the government.
The difficulty of finding compromises on the 2026 budget is more than ever prevalent, with a “time effect” now, the pressure is increasing as the end of the year is looming.
Under these conditions, a real test is played out on Friday with the fitch verdict on the sovereign note of France. On March 14, the famous and influential agency of rating gave an “AA-” with a negative perspective to our country.
“The rates of French bonds (OAT at 10 years) are under pressure, treated at levels similar to those of Greece and Italy, around 3.50 %. The deviations with these countries are now insignificant, suggesting that investors consider the OAT as equivalent to sovereign debts of lower quality, although France benefits from an aa- compared to BBB and BBB- Italy and Greece, which can suggest a gap of rating agencies in their evaluation, “observes Andrea Tueni, responsible for market activities at Saxo Banque.
“France has recorded in 2024 the largest budget deficit in the countries of the euro zone due mainly to the importance of its primary deficit (budgetary deficit outside of interest). It is committed to the European Commission to reduce its deficit under 3 % of GDP in 2029 which supposes a clear budgetary consolidation given the strong slips recorded in the past 2 years. To return to primary surplus on this horizon, which has not happened since the late 1990s in the early 2000s, and this sustainably “, decrypts for Aline Goupil-Raguénès, strategist developed country of Ostrum AM.
Until then, operators will focus on the BCE press conference, resulting in a council of governors on Thursday. A status quo on pan -European rates proper is expected.
David Zahn, head of European bond management at Franklin Templeton anticipates “that the ECB will maintain its unchanged rates at its meeting this week, by reaffirming its dependence on economic data. However, we do not anticipate new rate drops on the part of the ECB. The remaining inflation and the growth before accelerating next year. Until the end of the year.
In addition to Atlantic, the next major meetings are statistical, with the producer prices this Wednesday and retail prices Thursday, two barometer indicators for one, thermometer for the other of the price dynamics across the Atlantic, even though a softening of monetary policy, by direct action on rates from September 17, is acquired.
On the values ​​side, Publicis has won more than 2% supported by an increase in opinion on the part of Oddo BHF which noted its opinion of neutral to outperformance and its target of courses at 110 euros on the title. Kering returned 2.4% while the shareholders of the luxury group largely validated the arrival of Luca de Meo, who recently left Renault (+3.55%) to straighten the Mother house of Gucci. The new boss of Kering also said that he will present a strategic roadmap in the spring of 2026. Interparfums resisted (+0.5%) despite a new lowering of his income target for financial year 2025.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in the green Tuesday session, like the Dow Jones (+0.43%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.37%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.27% to 6,512 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1710. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 63.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.08%. As for the Vix, it was worth 15.04 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow Italian industrial production at 10:00 am and producer prices in the United States at 2:30 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7940.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7682.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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