CAC 40: full card for the index last week

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In extremis, the CAC has made a full box over the whole of last week, with 5 increases for as many sessions. Friday, the Parisian flagship index managed to grab 0.02% to 7,825 points very symbolically at the end of a nervous session, as the Fitch agency’s verdict on the French sovereign note.

The rating agency degraded the notation of French debt, made it lose its double A for an A+. “France has just changed division. The worrying is that we pay more and more the financing of our deficits and the refinancing of our debt. Which, now the first budgetary position of the nation, is on the way to 100 billion euros,” reacted Thierry Breton, ex-European commissioner in an interview in the gallery on Sunday.

Having not had the leisure to react to this sanction, the CAC 40 won 1.96% over the whole of this perfect week, the best since that of August 10 (+2.33%). The markets have indeed been worn in recent days by rate drops in the United States. These expectations have been reinforced by a series of statistics showing a slowdown in the American job market. The acceleration of production prices in August, did not question this scenario since it was in line with the expectations of the market.

Investors are more than convinced that the Fed will reduce its 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) at its meeting on September 17. According to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, they attribute a probability of 92.5% to this scenario and 7.5% for a drop of 50 base points.

The most important macroeconomic statistics of the week was published Thursday besides the Atlantic: these are CPIs, for consumer prices (Consumers’ Price Index), one of the most direct measures of inflation. No surprise, inflation increases, by +2.7% to +2.9% at an annual rate, for the widest product basket, therefore including food and energy. However, it was expected.

The day before the operators were already aware of an inflation indicator, with barometer value that, the prices for American production for the month of August. And against all expectations, the production price index (PPI) fell 0.1% while the consensus awaited an increase of 0.3%. They had increased by 0.7% in July.

On the front of values, Edenred (-6.4%) and Pluxee (-6.25%) experienced a difficult session, in reaction to an article in Les Echos evoking the implementation of social security contributions for employers on the advantages paid to employees. Including tickets-restaurants. Euronext won 0.6% the day after the announcement of its promotion in CAC 40, while Teleperformance which will be ousted on September 22 fell 0.9%. Vetoquinol jumped 11.2%, the profitability of the first half of the veterinary laboratory was deemed reassuring by investors, and Robertet gained 4.1% after its half -yearly publication. Fermentalg, on the other hand, fell 9.30%, the specialist in aquatic microorganisms held a prudent speech on his prospects for the second half.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended in dispersed order the session of Friday marked by a surprise drop in the consumer confidence index (U-Mich). The Dow Jones lost 0.59% when the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.44%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, played the averages for a equilibrium fence on the 6,584 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1730. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 63. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.07%. As for the Vix, it was worth 14.76 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow at 11:00 am the trade balance in the euro zone and at 2:30 p.m. the manufacturing index ‘Empire State’.

Key graphics elements

The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7940.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7692.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics