CAC 40: full cardboard at Wall Street, more restraint in Paris

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On Thursday, the CAC 40 surfed on the good dynamics of Wall Street, which steals records in records, based on the prospect of a monetary relaxation for the coming months. The Parisian flagship index gained 0.87% to 7,854 points, still under pressure from a level of resistance to 7,940 points.

Admittedly, the Fed lowered on Wednesday evening by 25 basis points the remuneration of the Fed Funds – it is very much expected -, but the stake was elsewhere: to what extent was the tone adopted by the Fed going to predict a softening in the coming months?

And the boss of the Fed, who spoke at a press conference, half an hour after the monetary decision proper, sent a rather careful message. If he suggested that this monetary easing could be followed by other drops by the end of the year, the descending trajectory of the guiding rates is not, however, frozen in marble. The reflection of the governors of the Fed will therefore be a meeting by Réunion, a much less accommodating strategy than the market had imagined in the wake of Jackson Hole and the August monthly report on employment.

That said, “it is interesting to note that Stephen Miran was the only one to express his disagreement. It seems to us that this could be a deliberate decision on the part of the other members of the FOMC (Monetary Policy Committee of the United States Federal Reserve) in order to show their support for President Powell and, in fact, as an implicit act of support for the independence of the Fed. Note ING economists.

The market now anticipates two additional drops of a quarter of percentage this year.

In the statistical chapter, new unemployment registrations fell from 33,000 to 231,000 new requests last week. The Philly Fed index measuring manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, with a barometer value for the country, rebounded at 23.2 in September, against -0.3 in August.

On the values ​​side, very important differences should be noted on certain files. The technological sector was in good shape: Soitec closing up 10.4%, Stmicroelectronics won 4.6%, followed by Capgemini (+3.2%) and Dassault Systems (+2.9%). Kering climbed 0.7% after the appointment of Francesca Bellettini at the head of Gucci. A choice that is part of Luca de Meo’s desire, a new managing director of the group, to quickly relaunch the flagship brand of Kering. Nanobiotix flambé by 19.4%, carried by the announcement of positive phase I data in skin melanoma. Finally, solutions 30 collapsed by 29% after revealing high degradation half -yearly results, weighed down by France.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended up the session on Thursday, like the Dow Jones (+0.27%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.94%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.48% at 6,631 points.

One point on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1770. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 63.00. THE Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.12%. As for the VIX, it was worth 15.70 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority the start of the Eurogroup meeting, an informal meeting of the finance ministers of the member states of the euro zone.

Key graphics elements

The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.

The index currently tests, without success, the high terminal of this tidy.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7940.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics