EUR/USD: dense news for exchange

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The dollar is increasing in the very short term against the euro, however within a downward primary trend, from the tone “accommodating but not too” adopted by J Powell at the end of the last FOMC.

As a reminder, the boss of the Fed, who spoke at a press conference, half an hour after the decrease of 25 pdb of guiding rates, sent a rather cautious message. If he suggested that this monetary easing could be followed by other drops by the end of the year, the descending trajectory of the guiding rates is not, however, frozen in marble. The reflection of the governors of the Fed will therefore be a meeting by Réunion, a much less accommodating strategy than the market had imagined in the wake of Jackson Hole and the August monthly report on employment.

A single governor distinguished himself, voting for a drop of 50 base points at a time of guiding rates.

“First, it is interesting to note that Stephen Miran was the only one to express his disagreement. It seems to us that this could be a deliberate decision on the part of the other members of the FOMC (Monetary Policy Committee of the Federal Reserve of the United States) in order to show their support for President Powell and, in fact, as an implicit act of support for the independence of the Fed. Perhaps we are doing too much,” Note ING economists.

During the press conference, its president, Jerome Powell suggested that this monetary easing could be followed by other decreases by the end of the year. However, it warned that the risks linked to inflation should still be assessed and managed, notes Invest Securities.

The Bank of Japan has maintained its unchanged 0.50% key rate but announced that it would start selling assets held in its balance sheet, including ETFs.

“This night, the central bank announced that it would start to sell its ETF stock, valued at more than 75,000 billion yen ($ 508 billion), at a rate of around 620 billion yen per year. Bloomberg notes that at this rate, it would take more than a century to sell them! It is mainly ETF on the Nikkei but it will also sell J-Reit, (Japan Real Estate Investment Trust). “Reports Alexandre Baradez (IG France).

As for geopolitical news, Donald Trump has to meet on Friday with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, for their second telephone conversation since the return of the Republican to the White House. The two parties are looking for a compromise on customs duties and an agreement on the Tiktok social network.

In the statistical chapter yesterday, new unemployment registrations fell from 33,000 to 231,000 new requests last week. The Philly Fed index measuring manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, with a barometer value for the country, rebounded at 23.2 in September, against -0.3 in August.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1750 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The slaughtered oblique in black decks, defining the quality of the bottom bullish trend. Following a new support on this benchmark, the Bollinger bands are initiating a slight spacing, we resume our upcoming work on the pair of currencies, which has sufficiently consolidated.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1744 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2465 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a USD 1,1607 protection stop.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 721 pips and the risk of loss is 137 pips.

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