CAC 40: Paris patina, Wall Street overheating

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Digging decisions of large central banks, and as statistical benchmarks are approaching in the form of activity barometers, the CAC started the week on a prudence note, withdrawing from 0.30% to 7,830 points in any volumes. The technical zone of 7,940 points thus continues to put pressure.

This week concentrates several major meetings, in particular the very first estimates for the current month of “PMIs”, these indicators calculated after counting of surveys passed with the directors of business purchases. The “PCE” prices (personal consumption index) also appear on the program; This is the favorite measure of the Fed in its appreciation of inflation. Fed of which many governors will express this week. The opportunity to learn more about the “meeting by meeting” approach that the federal reserve will adopt, after its monetary relaxation of 25 base points after its September meeting.

“The latest American data shows an improvement in consumption expenditure. The surveys are released in dispersed order with a downward empire before the marked rebound of the Philfed. In this context, the Fed A, as expected, proceeds to a drop in the rates of 25 pb. Stephen Miran, the voice of Trump within the FOMC, immediately voted for a reduction of 50 bp, even projecting Fed Funds at the end From the year 2025. Waller and Bowman, dissidents in July, voted for 25 base points “notes Axel Botte, Director Strategies Markets of Ostrum AM.

“Miranest therefore isolated and without real influence on FOMC decisions. According to Jerome Powell, a drop of 50 bp has not even been debated. The surprise came from the upward revision of growth and inflation projections for 2026. No FOMC member provides for an unemployment rate above 4.5 % next year. Despite a solid consensus on the macroeconomic situation, at the FOMC ranged from 2.75 % to 4 % from 2026. “

On the values ​​side, Stellantis fell 2.6%and Renault lost 1.55%, undermined by the warning on results launched by Porsche (-7.2%) Friday evening after the closing of European markets. Michelin (-1.41%) and OptMobility (-2.16%), for equipment manufacturers, also gave up land. On the side of small and medium capitalizations, Genfit fell 8.9% while the Biotechnologies company announced the cessation of a program in acute liver insufficiency on chronic.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session in the green like the Dow Jones (+0.41%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.70%). The S & P500, a reference barometer for the risk of the risk of fund managers, gained 0.44% at 6,693 points.

One point on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1800. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 61.90. THE Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.13%. As for the VIX, it was worth 16,10 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority the very first estimates of activity barometers in the euro zone at 10:00 am and in the United States at 3:45 pm. Richmond’s manufacturing index will be unveiled at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.

The index currently tests, without success, the high terminal of this tidy.

This level (7,940 points) constitutes a major resistance.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7940.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics