CAC 40: in technical camisole

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Certainly, the technical zone of 7,940 points constitutes a major level of resistance for the CAC 40 index. A new attempted crossing on Tuesday ended in a failure, despite the excellent hold of the luxury sector, its flagship sector.

L’Oréal, the third capitalization of the Paris Stock Exchange, signs the highest increase in the index (+3.5%), followed by LVMH (+3.2%), Kering (+1.9%) and Hermes (+0.9%). Among other things, the flagship compartment of the Paris Stock Exchange benefited from a note from Bank of America which points to certain “impressive” data in September in the United States and “less bad” in Japan.

On the macroeconomic level, the operators were able to peel the various PMI studies, these activity barometers calculated after counting of surveys passed with purchasing directors. On the scale of the entire euro zone, the disappointment is clear for the industry, whose component returns below the 50 points, mainly due to German weighting, which completely lacks expectations. For services, the score is more mild (51.4).

“The sharp decline in the volume of new orders in Germany and France also undermines hope for accelerating expansion in the coming months. In the medium term, the increase in defense spending could however stimulate the demand for manufactured goods, and the vast investment plan in the infrastructure adopted by the German government should, in the more immediate future, to support the industrial growth of the euro zone”, commented Dr. Cyrus Rubia, chief economist in Hamburg Commercial Bank.

“Nevertheless, according to the latest survey data, the manufacturers’ confidence in the next twelve months has been fell back in Germany and throughout the region.”

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the declining Tuesday session, like the Dow Jones (-0.19%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.95%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 0.55% to 6,656 points.

One point on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1800. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 63.50. THE Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.11%. As for the VIX, it was worth 16.64 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the IFO index of the business climate in Germany at 10:00 am as well as sales of new housing in the United States at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.

The index currently tests, without success, the high terminal of this tidy. This level (7,940 points) constitutes a major resistance. The index multiplies the candles with high pronounced wick on its approach.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7940.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics