London (Reuters) – BP said Thursday expects global oil demand to increase until 2030, five years longer than it provided a year ago, the British Major stressing the slowdown in efforts to increase energy efficiency.
In its annual report on energy trends by 2050 (“Energy Outlook”), BP anticipates two possibilities: a “Current Trajectory” scenario based on existing policies and commitments, while another (“Below 2-Degrees”) provides for a drop of approximately 90% of carbon emissions by 2050 compared to 2023 levels.
The emissions largely result from the combustion of oil, natural gas and coal.
Global oil demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day (BPJ) by 2030 according to the “Current Trajectory” scenario, before falling to 83 million BPJ by 2050.
Last year, BP planned in its report a peak in demand in 2025 at around 102 million BPJ, but the slowdown in efficiency gains changed the situation.
According to the “Below 2-Degrees” scenario, the demand for oil is peak this year at 102.2 million BPJ before falling to 33.8 million BPJ by 2050.
According to the scenario “Current Trajectory”, the CO2 equivalent emissions would remain generally stable until 2030, then drops by around 25% by 2050 compared to the levels of 2023.
According to the “Below 2-Degrees” scenario, emissions would drop 90% under the effect of faster decarbonation in emerging economies.
(Stephanie Kelly and Shadia Nasralla in London, Augustin Turpin, edited by Benjamin Mallet)
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