EUR/USD: US employment with a magnifying glass

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While the United States is entering the period of budgetary paralysis (Shutdown) and the American employment concentrates this week a good part of the attention of the trade, the pair of Euro / dollar currencies found a balance near its short mobile average at 20 days. This period of Shutdown is due to the lack of agreement between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate on the budget, and results in the systematic judgment of a good part of the federal services, so -called non -essential.

“Historically, the average duration of Shutdowns is between 8-9 days. But this time, it could be longer. The Trump administration seems to be accommodating it, seeing the way to succeed where the DOG had failed massively officials. During this delicate period, the market will have to count on private statistics such as the ADP survey but which often include methodological shortcomings”, prevents Christopher Dembik, investment/

Precisely, this investigation threw a cold yesterday. It was all the more followed since Friday’s federal figures (NFP) could be postponed due to … Shutdown, naturally!

According to the monthly investigation of the ADP cabinet, the private sector in the United States, against all odds, destroyed 32,000 jobs in September, where the consensus was aimed at 51,000 job creations. Unheard of since March 2023. The figure for August was also revised to display a destruction of 3,000 positions against 54,000 posts of posts initially estimated.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic.

“The figures published this week, and in particular the ADP report, still validates the hypothesis that the labor market is in high slowdown. This could even deteriorate more with the Shutdown,” says Bastien Drut. “Consequently, there is no doubt that the Fed will continue its cycle of rate drops: will the question become ‘accelerating this cycle?'” Asks the market specialist.

On the European side, the single currency, one of the benchmark barometers for the risk made of resistance, based on these monetary considerations and the statistics of Wednesday. The German component of the Manufacturer of September, released at 48.5 in the first estimate, is finally revised at 49.5 in final data. Recall that the “score” is still below 50 points, which separates a contraction from an expansion of the sector considered. In addition, updated estimates of consumer prices in the euro zone are confirmed at +2.3% in annual rate, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1760 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The breakdown of the slaughtered oblique right drawn in black does not put, at this stage in any case, in doubt the power of the upward primary trend, but brings its batch of questioning on the need for consolidation of the pair of currencies. We again issue a neutral opinion on the Eurusd spot, wisely positioned in the heart of the Bollinger bands (20; 2.5).

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between the USD 1,1608 support and the resistance to 1,1835 USD.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between the USD 1,1608 support and the resistance to 1,1835 USD.

Daily data graphics