(BFM Stock Exchange) – The car manufacturer delivered 497,000 vehicles in the third quarter, translating an increase of 7.4% over a year. But the progression of these deliveries can be explained by the next end of tax credits for purchasing electric vehicles in the United States.

Tesla may surprise the market with much stronger commercial figures than expected, the scholarship remains marble.

At the start of the session at Wall Street this Thursday, October 2, the action of the car manufacturer led by Elon Musk abandoned 1.6% after winning 2% in pre -opening exchanges.

Since the beginning of the year, the volumes of the company have suffered, especially in China and Europe, weighed down by a lack of renewal of the group range when the competition draws brand new electric models.

Sales were also able to suffer from Elon Musk’s political commitment alongside Donald Trump, even if the leader left the United States government and even changed on multiple times with the White House tenant. Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush, had estimated that Musk’s activities in Washington had “damaged the brand”, which has become a political symbol.

Tesla’s results suffered with a fall in its revenues by 16% in the automotive division in the last quarter published, and a generation of cash drops by 89%.

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End of tax credits

Deliveries in the third quarter are out of the expectations, and have even displayed an increase, to the surprise of analysts.

Over the period from July to the end of September, Tesla delivered for 497,100 vehicles, reflecting an increase of more than 7% compared to the same period (463,000 units). Consensus (average forecast) was housed at 439,600 cars, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

However, several reasons may explain the sluggishness of the stock market reaction. First of all, as Bloomberg notes, the increase in company volumes, could very well have been carried by an exceptional factor. Namely the abolition of September 30 of tax credits up to 7,500 dollars for the purchase of “clean” (and therefore electric) vehicles, a measure contained in the last American finance law.

The Americans were able to put forward purchasing projects for electric vehicles during the period to benefit from this bonus which dates from the Biden administration.

“Even if the request for electric vehicles should decrease with the expiration of the tax credit for electric vehicles, this quarter was marked by a spectacular rebound for Tesla, (…) there is however work to be done to gain further land in terms of deliveries”, judge Dan Ives, of Wedbush.

Elon Musk, himself, warned that the end of this tax advantage would hurt his group’s activity. “We could know a few difficult quarters, especially in the closed quarters in December 2025, March 2026 and perhaps June 2026”, due to the end of support measures in the United States to the purchase of electric vehicles, explained the manager to analysts in late July.

An impressive rally.

In addition, the Tesla action has known, in recent weeks, an impressive rally. According to Bloomberg, the title resumed 33% in the month of September alone. So it was a lot to do to carry the action more.

Bloomberg has linked this takeoff to several hopes from investors, such as seeing Elon Musk get involved at full speed in the transformation of his company to a group of tech specializing in artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles. This was reinforced by the gargantuan remuneration plan granted by the board of directors to Musk, a “package” valued at $ 1,000 billion.

“Investors are starting to see beyond short-term demand problems for Tesla and recognize that Tesla is in pole position to become the undisputed leader in the autonomous vehicle market, with Robotaxis which should extend to 30 to 35 cities in the United States over the next year,” said Dan Ives last month.

“We also believe that the new salary package recently granted to Musk has relieved investors, because it confirms that Musk will remain CEO of Tesla at least until 2030. In our opinion, Musk remains the most important asset of Tesla and the board of directors has made an intelligent and judicious decision,” he adds.

To see however if the market, as sometimes tends to be the case, does not show excess.

… but exaggerated?

Tesla only recently launched its Robotaxis service last June in Austin, Texas. The company intends to deploy this service in other cities in the United States by the end of the year before a large-scale production of “cybercabs”, the Robotaxis in question, in 2026.

Elon Musk said this service could be available for half of Americans by the end of the year, provided you obtain appropriate regulatory authorizations, which is not an easy task.

In a recent note, UBS estimated that Robotaxis could ultimately represent income of $ 200 billion for Tesla by 2040. But this estimate required a certain number of hypotheses, including the absence of regulatory, technological or acceptability problems on the part of consumers. The Swiss bank concluded while the Tesla action was overvalued.