(News Bulletin 247) – The Euro regained some air against the Dollar on Tuesday, above the technical safeguard of $1.10, as crude oil confirmed its decline, under the effect of a of the confinement of the city of Shanghai, and on the other hand against a background of hope for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. The Russian and Ukrainian delegations are to meet this Tuesday in Turkey.
On the statistical side on Monday, RAS on the trade balance, the monthly deficit of which came out in close proximity to expectations. On the other hand, wholesale inventories for the month of February jumped 2.1%, according to the latest figures from the Census Bureau. Overall, the week will be rich in macroeconomic and statistical publications, culminating in the monthly federal employment report on Friday.
To be followed in priority, on the agenda this Tuesday, for the United States, new job offers (JOLTS) and the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.1040 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
As long as the spot will be priced above $1.10, the oxygen supply is assured. On this side, there is no lack of technical arguments to justify the taking of selling positions. In the immediate future and in the absence of an interesting chart entry point, traders will avoid exposure. Regarding the substantive work matrix, it remains unchanged. The transition phase between February 4 and 23, in the form of a slip without federation, under the 100-day moving average (in orange) is over. The underlying bearish bias aligns with the short term, and the plot of a candle conspicuous by its red body on Thursday 2/24 illustrates the firm grip of the selling side. With 5 red-bodied candles from March 1 to 7, and continued selling mobilization in week 09, the picture remains gloomy.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.1000 USD and the resistance at 1.1140 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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