EUR/USD: deprived of NFP, the euro finds a balance point against the dollar

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While the burners will be deprived of a federal relationship on private employment health this Friday due to the Shutdown, the buying and sellers were continuing to balance, the spot now wiring around its mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).

If the “NFP”, however eagerly awaited, not in the program of the day, the operators on currencies had other statistical benchmarks on employment this week, like a very disappointing copy of the private firm in Human Resources ADP.

As a reminder, the private sector in the United States, against all odds, destroyed 32,000 jobs in September, where the consensus was aimed at 51,000 job creations. Unheard of since March 2023. The figure for August was also revised to display a destruction of 3,000 positions against 54,000 posts of posts initially estimated.

“The figures published this week, and in particular the ADP report, still validates the hypothesis that the labor market is in high slowdown. This could even deteriorate more with the Shutdown,” says Bastien Drut. “Consequently, there is no doubt that the Fed will continue its cycle of rate drops: will the question become ‘accelerating this cycle?'” Asks the market specialist.

“The absence of new employment and unemployment figures will complicate the task of the Federal Reserve (Fed) at the end of the month. Several FOMC members have publicly expressed their concern about the state of the labor market, some even stressing that the Fed is late compared to the cycle,” reports Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

On the European side, investors take note of the publication of PMI indices in the euro zone. In September, the composite index, an overall measure of private sector activity, established 51.2 in final data, a higher 16 months. An index greater than 50 indicates an expansion of the activity.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1740 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The breakdown of the slaughtered oblique right drawn in black does not put, at this stage in any case, in doubt the power of the upward primary trend, but brings its batch of questioning on the need for consolidation of the pair of currencies. We again issue a neutral opinion on the Eurusd spot, wisely positioned in the heart of the Bollinger bands (20; 2.5).

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between the USD 1,1608 support and the resistance to 1,1835 USD.

Daily data graphics