(BFM Stock Exchange) – The title of Gucci’s parent company has returned to 50% over the last three months, therefore, of course, very low. The arrival at the controllers of the Italian leader and ex-director general of Renault has at least in part fed this rebound, creating some enthusiasm from the market.

Will Luca de Meo breathe the spirit of the “Renaulution” – the strategic plan that allowed him to straighten the automaker Renault – at Kering by operating a “keringlution”? It is in any case the wish that a shareholder of the company formulated, during the extraordinary general meeting of the luxury group in early September.

“Luca de Meo, make the Kering action is more attractive and more desirable than ever, and make us the pride of belonging to a large luxury family group, now capable of playing in the big leagues, LVMH and Hermès,” also asked for this shareholder during the question and answer session.

For the potential “Keringlution”, we will have to wait. Luca de Meo said, on the same time, that he intended to present his future strategic plan in the spring of 2026. But the now ex-director general of Renault warned that he would be “fast, effective, decisive” and would not wait for the finalization of this plan to act, evoking measures that will be taken by the end of the year.

The leader also judged that Kering should continue to deleted, reduce his costs and “where it is essential, rationalize, reorganize and reposition some of our brands”. This will require “not always easy” decisions, “said Luca de Meo, who officially took office on September 15.

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First announcements

The first changes were quick. Two days after the official arrival of the Italian leader, Kering announced the appointment of Francesca Belletini, previously Deputy Director General of the Group, to the Gucci CEO, the largest brand of the group (40% of turnover and 50% of the operating profit running in the first half).

Another announcement: a shareholder pact allowing Kering potentially buying the Valentino group was amended on September 11. Which, to simplify, amounts to freezing the capital of the Italian brand until 2028 at the earliest. Currently Valentino is 30% owned by Kering and 70% by the Qatari Mayoola fund. A few days later, Valentino and Kering have established a partnership, the Italian label confident to “Kering Eyewear”, the company of the group specializing in luxury eyewear, the rights of development and distribution of sunglasses and views of its brand.

“Although these measures have a short -term limited quantitative impact, they send a strong signal: de Meo acts decisively,” said Jie Zhang, analyst at the AlphaValue design office, in a note.

The scholarship not put off by the “car guy”

Luca de Meo remains “a Car Guy”, an automobile enthusiast, with professional experience in luxury so far almost nonexistent (unless we take into account his initiatives to develop the Sports brand of Renault, Alpine). The Italian leader himself agreed that the choice of François-Henri Pinault, the chairman of the board of directors of Kering, to appoint him director general could “surprise”.

The same François-Henri Pinault nevertheless explained to the shareholders that the Polyglot Luca de Meo (he speaks French, English, Italian, German and Spanish) had demonstrated his “ability to pilot complex organizations, to federate the teams and to conduct deep transformations”. Above all, the heir to the Pinault family underlined the passion of Italian for the “product” as well as “the attention he brings to creation”. This “sensitivity to the culture of brands” is essential to pilot Kering, he added.

The market, it, more than granting the benefit of the doubt to Luca de Meo. Kering action resumed 24.8% over a month, which is the highest increase in CAC 40 over this period. The title even earns 50% over three months, which coincides more or less with the announcement of his appointment to Kering (mid-June).

Helped by a promising first collection of Gucci?

Admittedly, the leap of the title must be nuanced, because the luxury group had fallen into the stock market abyss, due to the fall in sales of Gucci and the diving of its profitability. In the first half, the Italian brand’s revenues have further fell by 25% in comparable data, after having already melted by 21% in 2024. Over five years, the group’s action remains with 49%.

Nevertheless, Luca de Meo began charming investors. UBS pointed out on Tuesday that the changes of management, and therefore its arrival at the head of the group, “bring a hope of stabilization for the group after several years of sub-performance due to Gucci”.

“The arrival of Luca de Meo led the market to project itself in the medium term and to consider a Kering recovery scenario that he did not play before. The investors have taken hold of this theme,” explains an anonymous analyst.

The latter also evokes, to explain the recent increase in the Kering title, the presentation, last week, of the first collection of Gucci by its new artistic director, Demna Gvasalia (known as “Demna”), which succeeded in July in Sabato de Sarno at the head of the creation of the Transalpine label.

“The collection made a lot of noise, it gave a little gucci at the center of the conversation. It was also able to reassure the dreading skeptics that Demna remains in the style (provocative, editor’s note) that he had at Balenciaga, but that was not the case,” said this analyst, who evokes a “promising start”. Even if the articles in this collection will only have their effects in group stores in a few months.

An opinion that HSBC analysts seem to share, even if they humbly recognize, in a note published on Wednesday, that as financial analysts they do not necessarily have the skills to judge “fashion trends and creative talent”.

But these market experts point out that Demna has tried to address a broad audience in terms of style, age and gender, avoiding falling into a niche, which is according to them the right fold to take. They also believe that the artistic director should be able to generate traffic in stores.

“No tangible improvement” at the moment

To return to Luca de Meo, the market went a little quickly to work hoping for a recovery from the Italian leader?

Bernstein analysts rather lean on the right side of the scale in terms of their opinion on De Meo and Demna. However, they are cautious.

On the stock market, the stories based on internal performance levers (what are called the “self-Help story”) rarely experience a regular upward trajectory, but rather many significant upward and downward fluctuations, “they explain in a note published in mid-September.

“Kering should not be an exception. The share price has already increased by 50% compared to its recent hollows. And the company has yet shown no tangible improvement,” point these analysts.

Admittedly, the appointment of Luca de Meo, as well as the creative change with Demna, are “encouraging”, recognize the specialists of Bernstein.

“But it is always a bet that says ‘I hope’, tabling on the fact that De Meo consolidates the balance sheet and strengthens the management team and that Gvasalia proves it,” they decide.

HSBC analysts are optimistic and also noted their advice on purchase on Kering in early September.

“What seems to us most relevant is that Kering now has a new leader capable of remedying what has been lacking in the company in recent years: a feeling of emergency and simplicity (too many leaders at Gucci, duplication at the level of the company, etc …). We believe that he can only bring his help on these two fronts,” they explained.

“We are enthusiastic about this change, mainly because we think that in the world of consumption, it is difficult to challenge the enthusiasm linked to the hope that the arrival of a general manager recruited externally” they add.

A gigantic potential?

HSBC analysts have in mind recent successes at Adidas and Burberry, where the respective bosses, Bjorn Gulden and Josh Schulman, were able to revitalize the teams, the operational and especially the stock market course (85% increase in the action in 24 months at Adidas, 70% increase in the Burberry title since Schulman).

“Despite an always difficult market context, the first measures taken by DE MEO considerably strengthen our confidence in Kering’s recovery,” wrote Jie Zhang, AlphaValue.

Funny fact: Several design offices explain that it has seen the series “Anatomy of a Comeback” broadcast on Amazon Prime, which recounts the history of Renault’s recovery under the leadership of De Meo (HSBC even subtly refers to it in the note containing its recovery of advice on the action of the company).

“In this documentary, he speaks of the desirability of brands, what we find in the universe of luxury. Admittedly, he has a less good knowledge of this sector than of the automobile. But this is not what he is asked. He must bring a new look and have the capacity to make difficult decisions, with energy, leadership and a spirit of competitiveness that the group had perhaps a little. Futile says like that, but it is the reality of things, we are in a profession of people, “explains the anonymous analyst previously mentioned.

For this market expert, “we are on the start of history (on the stock market, editor’s note) and if things are pinning well, it can go very far, even if it will not be a straight line, a long quiet path”. “But we feel the appetite of investors”, and the potential of rise ‘”is much higher than at Burberry”, which returned to 74% over a year, he concludes.

In the meantime, Kering will present his third quarter activity on October 22, a publication that should not show a great miracle. UBS Tables a 9% total withdrawal with comparable data and 15% at Gucci. HSBC anticipates a drop of 11.1% in the group level and 18% at Gucci.