(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index rebounded strongly on Wednesday (+2.03% to 13,643 points), fully taking its place within a trading range between 13,330 and 13,838 points. A rebound finally measured against the losses accumulated since Tuesday, April 5, against a background of chronic inflation. In terms of statistics, operators took note on Wednesday of the producer price index in the United States, which came out very clearly beyond expectations for March, in basic or underlying data. From one month to the next, producer prices rose in their widest base by 1.4%… To follow in priority, on the agenda this Thursday, across the Atlantic, retail sales and registrations weekly to unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m.
As a reminder, published on Tuesday, the consumer price index, in data core (adjusted for food and energy, highly volatile data), gained 0.3% in March, month-on-month. So much for core inflation. On the other hand, taking into account the largest basket of products, monthly growth is 1.2%, in line with expectations. What to pass the Treasuries 10 years from 2.85 to 2.75, without significantly reducing the probability of seeing the Fed raise its Fed Funds by 50 basis points from the next FOMC.
“In the United States, the Fed’s being forced to tackle the risk of runaway inflation has upended the traditional practice of bailing out markets and rushing to the rescue of the economy at the first sign of strain,” comments Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank. “In short, the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy is much less effective today than it was a year ago: the Fed needs to take the lead.”
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The very short-term technical framework has just realigned itself with the medium term in the red, with an immediate work zone reintegrated between 13,330 points and 13,838 points. A breach of this last threshold would cause an accelerating selling movement towards 12,640 points. Volumes are more than ever put under surveillance.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 13838.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 13330.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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