(News Bulletin 247) – While we feared the scenario of an opening on Wednesday below the March 16 gap, isolating a handful of sessions, the index finally opened above, filling the entire gap ( lower limit at 6,383 points), before recovering somewhat during the session, with the support of a flood of particularly encouraging quarterly reports. But investors are not ready to abandon caution in the face of growing risks of stagflation.
At the start of the afternoon, the German government announced that it expected weaker growth and inflation almost twice as high as expected for 2022, due to the war in Ukraine which is particularly weighing on its economy. To drive the point home, Russia has decided to use gas as a means of pressure when the country has just cut off the blue gold tap to Bulgaria and Poland after their refusal to pay in rubles.
In terms of statistics, targets missed yesterday in the United States, whether for the deficit, albeit structural, of the trade balance of goods, inventories of wholesalers, current home sales, and oil stocks.
On the value side, the “Beta” effect was still as important on the pan Growth of the rating, which amplified the small rebound of the CAC. These include LVMH (+1.53% to 616.60 euros), Hermès (+1.76% to 1,186 euros), Wordline (+1.94% to 35.74 euros), or Dassault Systèmes (+4, 68% to 40.41 euros).
On the other side of the Atlantic, and not without nervousness, the main equity indices ended Wednesday’s session at levels close to balance, like the Dow Jones (+0.19% to 33 301 points, and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.01% to 12,488 points).The S&P 500, benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.21% to 4,183 points .
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0510. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $100.
To follow in priority, on the agenda this Thursday, across the Atlantic, the very first estimates of the American GDP in Q1 as well as the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
As seen in the preamble, the flagship Parisian index completely filled the gap of March 16, this level classically becoming a technical support point for CT. The new working band therefore comes: 6,380 points – 6,570 points, this second level corresponding to the upper limit of the bearish gap of April 25, at the very beginning of the week. Volumes will be scrutinized on any upward movement within this tidy.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index quotes above the support at 6380.00 points.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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