The Cantareira system could reach April 2022, the beginning of the next drought period, with 17% of its capacity, according to the most recent projection by Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Alerts on Natural Disasters).
The percentage is expected in the most pessimistic scenario, if rainfall remains 50% below the historical average for the period. If precipitation is as expected, Cantareira will arrive in April with a volume of 65%, according to the agency.
The projection represents a situation worse than that recorded in 2013, the year before the water crisis in Greater São Paulo, according to Pedro Luiz, professor of the postgraduate program in environmental science at USP’s Institute of Energy and Environment (IEE), Polite. “We have a climate forecast of a summer with below-average rainfall that has been confirmed despite the beginning of a rainy spring,” he says.
According to him, between 2011 and 2020, Cantareira had a rainfall deficit in relation to the historical average, with the exception of 2015, when there was a 5% surplus in supply.
Even so, Côrtes does not rule out the possibility of Cantareira recovering from the summer rains, albeit short. “After the rainy season, the [abastecimento] of the reservoir tends to fall a lot.”
In a statement, Sabesp (Basic Sanitation Company of the State of São Paulo) stated that there is no risk of shortages in the metropolitan region of São Paulo at this time. “The projection points to satisfactory levels of reservoirs with the prospect of rain in late spring and early summer, when the situation will be reassessed,” he informed.
​The reservoirs that supply the metropolitan region of São Paulo received this year, between January and October, on average 25% less rain than in the same period in 2013, the year before the water crisis.
According to the head of the Applied Research Service at Inmet (National Institute of Meteorology), meteorologist Danielle Ferreira, the forecast for the coming months is below average rainfall, between 5 and 10 millimeters less than normal for the period . “The rains will occur, but not enough to compensate for the dry months and the last summer drier than expected,” he says.
The same forecast is made by Climatempo meteorologist Ana Clara Marques, who forecasts between 20% and 30% less rain in Greater São Paulo between October and March of next year. “The biggest concern is with the next dry period, starting in June 2022, when the reservoirs may be below the expected volume”, he says.
Since 2018, when necessary, Sabesp has been supplying Cantareira with water from the ParaÃba do Sul river basin after completion of the works on the Jaguari-Atibainha interconnection and the São Lourenço system.
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