Is it worth buying euro now? experts answer

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For the first time in two decades, the euro reached parity with the dollar this Tuesday (12). With fears about a possible recession in Europe, investors began to favor the American currency, which was traded at US$ 1 per euro this morning – something that had not happened since December 2002.

For those who intend to travel to Europe, the devaluation can bring doubts about the best time to buy the currency.

According to experts, the current moment is still good, but if the term is comfortable, the strategy indicated is to seek the average price. That is, considering the inherent unpredictability of the foreign exchange market, the ideal is to buy gradually and at regular intervals – which works as a protection against sudden changes.

After reaching parity on Tuesday morning, prices underwent some changes throughout the day. The euro, for example, closed short at R$5.45, while the dollar closed at R$5.43.

The moment of the fall in the European currency coincides with the July holidays which, unlike in previous years, will have fewer restrictions on tourism due to the advance of vaccination against Covid-19.

For those traveling in a week or two, buying euros now could be a good opportunity, argues Reginaldo Galhardo, manager of Treviso Corretora de Câmbio.

According to him, the currency is at a more accessible level, but parity with the dollar is not necessarily an indicator of a good time to buy. He recalls, for example, that the euro was already cheaper at the beginning of the year and that, in most cases, what matters for those traveling is the value in relation to the real.

“In April, we had the euro hitting R$5.04. So, if the person had bought [naquele momento] would have earned R$ 0.40 per euro”, he says.

Now, for those who have dollars and need to exchange them for euros, Galhardo says that this is really a good time, because it will be possible to make the transaction with a negligible loss.

In the case of less urgent trips, the scenario changes. That’s because there is the prospect that the European currency will continue to fall against the dollar in the coming weeks.

The release of inflation figures in the United States, for example, could further benefit dollar investment, considering a likely increase in US interest rates.

Galhardo points out that economic indicators from Europe and the United States can also point to a recession, which would cause distortions in the world market.

Therefore, for those who have time until the date of the trip, he recommends making the purchase of euros little by little.

If the shipment is in six months, for example, Galhardo suggests dividing the desired amount by six and making monthly purchases. “If the euro starts to rise, people will have already made cheap purchases, and if it is falling, they will take advantage of the price.”

This is also suggested by Jefferson Rugik, from Correparti Corretora de Câmbio. According to him, the tendency is for the euro to operate below parity with the dollar. However, this will depend on many variables, mainly on how the American and European economies recover.

In his view, the parity reached this Tuesday indicates that the European currency is cheaper. “It is still a good time for those who want to travel to Europe. Considering that until recently, the dollar was bought at R$5 and the euro at R$6…”.

Faced with the natural unpredictability of the foreign exchange market, Rugik argues that the best strategy, for those who have time to plan, is to follow the market and seek the average price. “If a person wants to buy 5,000 euros, buy a thousand now, when it drops a little more, buy a thousand more, analyzing the market”, she says.

The same strategy, he says, applies to those who want to acquire the currency as an investment. “We always say to the client: ‘average you make less mistakes’.”

Lucas Brigato, exchange leader at Ethimos Investimentos, says that the current parity is inviting for those who have a trip planned or intend to go to Europe.

Although he has doubts whether it was the euro that arrived at the value of the dollar or the other way around, he considers that the European currency is very cheap compared to the American one. “In relation to the real, we had better situations, but in the current context it is cheap,” he says.

In his view, it is difficult to say whether the parity between currencies will remain in the long term or if it is a one-off. Therefore, it would be inappropriate to say that the best thing to do is buy all the euro for the trip now.

“Regardless of the circumstance, the booklet says to split purchases, always.”

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