Brazil maintained its “contribution” to the global climate crisis at high levels. With data on deforestation in the Amazon recorded by Deter, released this Friday (12), the country saw the maintenance of a worrying level, according to experts, of cutting down the largest tropical forest in the world, destruction that is the main Brazilian vector of emission of greenhouse gases.
Deforestation levels also bring the region closer to an uncontrollable situation, say researchers. As it is currently done, enforcement will no longer be sufficient to contain crimes given the size and spread of destruction.
The Deter system of Inpe (National Institute for Space Research) points to just over 8,590 km² deforested in the Amazon from August 2021 to July 2022 (agreed base period for measuring deforestation).
Deter’s primary function is not to measure deforestation — a task that is carried out by the Prodes system, also run by Inpe —, but rather to assist operations to combat environmental crimes. Despite this, by monitoring the removal of vegetation from the forest by satellite in almost real time, it is possible to use Deter to perceive trends in vegetation suppression.
Since the beginning of the Jair Bolsonaro government (PL), data from Deter and also from Prodes have consolidated an explosion in the destruction of the Amazon and the consolidation of very high numbers of deforestation, both monthly and yearly.
With the current levels of deforestation recorded — with several months with Amazonian destruction above 1,000 km² —, Brazil’s international climate commitments may be in jeopardy, especially the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The country has also committed to zero illegal clearing of native forest by 2028.
The situation is very serious, says João Paulo Capobianco, a member of the Brazil Climate, Forests and Agriculture Coalition and of the board of directors of the Democracy and Sustainability Institute.
“It is getting difficult to reverse because deforestation is gaining scale, it is spreading through the territory”, says Capobianco, who points out that there has been a penetration of deforestation in deeper areas of the Amazon, including in its heart, in the Amazon.
The representative of the Coalização expresses concern, as do other researchers and environmentalists, that the prior license for works on the so-called “middle section” of the BR-319 will further accelerate this process of expansion of destruction.
“The scenario is very bad. We are moving quickly to reach the ‘point of no return'”, a term used to describe the moment when, when reaching a certain level of destruction in the Amazon – estimates indicate that it may not be very distant—, the forest will undergo a savannization process, in which its biodiversity and ecosystem services will be lost.
Capobianco recalls previous situations of growth in deforestation that managed to be reversed, but says that the current situation will be more complex to possible future governments. In other words, the way in which environmental crime is fought today may no longer be enough to contain deforestation.
The expert says that the Bolsonaro government is insensitive about deforestation and has no commitment to combating this type of crime — despite a recent change in the tone of discourse on the subject.
In addition to environmental preservation, the control of deforestation in the country is important for compliance with the Brazilian NDC (National Determined Contribution, its acronym in English) in the Paris Agreement. In order to fulfill what it has set out to do, the country must necessarily drastically reduce deforestation in the Amazon. While in other countries the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation is what emits the most gases, in Brazil, cutting down forests is the action that emits the most greenhouse gases, followed by livestock activity.
In its updated NDC (climate target), Brazil commits to reduce, in 2030, 50% of the gases emitted, in 2025 to have reduced 37% of the emissions, in relation to 2005, and to arrive in 2050 in a situation of neutrality of carbon. In other words, as long as there is increasing deforestation, the country will continue to emit more and more greenhouse gases, as has been the case.
It is worth mentioning that the new Brazilian target formalizes a “climate pedaling”, considering that it changed the base data for comparison without increasing the ambition of emission cuts.
“Maintaining these levels of deforestation and already experiencing the problem linked to climate change and climate deregulation [local] that deforestation in the Amazon and the cerrado causes, affecting the rainfall regime in the Midwest and Southeast, is very worrying”, says Edegar de Oliveira, director of conservation and restoration at WWF-Brasil.
“This shows the characteristic of this government, which is not concerned about combating deforestation. Even if the narrative has changed, in practice it remains the same, it is a government that destroys the environment.”
Capobianco emphasizes that, due to the complexity of the topic, the impacts on the climate as a result of what is happening in the forest are not yet fully known. “We’ve never had the opportunity to study such a radical change in an environment like the one in the Amazon. It’s a huge and concentrated change in scale.”
“The data are extremely unfavorable to the commitments that Brazil has with the Paris Agreement”, says climatologist Paulo Artaxo.
“Unfortunately, the process of destruction of the Amazon continues to get stronger due to the lack of policies that preserve the forest, policies to reinforce the end of illegal acts linked to deforestation. It is not expected that this will have any change until January. We hope that the next government effectively stop the process of destruction of Brazil’s natural ecosystems.”
