Lula management will need to avoid deforestation beyond the point of no return

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will assume his third term in a country more vulnerable to climate change, with the world’s largest rainforest on the brink of the point of no return and still under increasing international pressure for agricultural production not to export deforestation .

The result of this mandate will define Brazil’s ability to respond to the climate challenge, whose deadline given by science is the end of this decade.

Greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut in half by 2030, according to the UN climate panel. Deforestation is not only the main vector of emissions in Brazil, but also a kind of ultimate thermometer for the rest of the world.

If Brazil fails to achieve zero deforestation in the Amazon this decade — the goal is part of Brazil’s contribution to the Paris Agreement and is also part of Lula’s campaign commitments — the world will be less likely to be able to stop global warming. This is because the destruction of the Amazon is among the nine main climate inflection points on the planet.

Deforestation beyond the point of no return —estimated between 20% and 25% loss of vegetation, according to USP climatologist Carlos Nobre— would represent an abyss, beyond which the biome can no longer generate rain and regenerate.

The United States and China have already shown signs that they are considering taking inspiration from recent European legislation that bans the import of commodities linked to deforestation.

On the other hand, the Scandinavian fund Nordea — which in 2019 had quarantined new investments in Brazilian government bonds, due to the fires in the Amazon — is already evaluating the resumption of acquisitions as possible, with the change in the Brazilian government’s environmental commitment.

In view of the international scenario, the Ministry of the Environment will continue to be charged for deforestation rates in the Amazon. Now, more than reducing deforestation, the new government will have the challenge of reversing its level, which came from an average of 7,000 km² in the years prior to 2019 and jumped to more than 13,000 km² in 2021.

To bring deforestation to zero by the end of the decade, the inversion of the political signal needs to be immediate. With this strategy in mind, the Concertação pela Amazônia initiative proposes a set of 14 measures that the president-elect could take even in the first 100 days of government.

Among them is the creation of a climate emergency secretariat, linked to the Presidency of the Republic. Other suggestions from the initiative deal with small impulses that could have a domino effect on agendas such as territorial planning and environmental licensing, which are topics of “herds” in Congress.

The anti-environmental bench has increased, according to Farol Verde, from the current 37% of votes in the Chamber to 42.6% in the next legislature.

Now represented in Congress, supporters and executors of the anti-environmental policy of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) can stop advances and propose other setbacks in environmental legislation, such as new flexibility in the Forest Code. As it provides for the registration and environmental regularization of rural properties, the law is one of the measures considered crucial to reduce 89% of deforestation in the Amazon, according to a study by the University of Oxford and Inpe.

Despite the agenda imposed by global geopolitics, the country also needs to find its own reasons to implement climate policies. Biomes that do not receive international attention —such as the Cerrado, the Pantanal, the Caatinga and the Atlantic Forest— are fundamental for Brazilians, as they concentrate environmental services that are fundamental to life, such as water supply (which is also threatened by the climate).

The South American region, according to the UN climate panel report released last March, still has great chances of effectiveness and even co-benefits when implementing climate adaptations for energy and irrigation systems and water management, with residual impacts. still small.

In a warmer scenario, these measures lose effectiveness, indicating the need for planning and immediate actions.

Climate adaptation also implies a review of the large hydroelectric dams in the Amazon – which negatively marked the PT’s environmental management due to the socio-environmental impacts of the Belo Monte plant, in Pará.

The model —which Lula’s team continues to defend— should become even more unfeasible as climate change alters rainfall patterns and river flow, reducing the safety and permanence of the hydroelectric source.

Lula returns to the Planalto Palace with an updated environmental discourse, but with deeper challenges in negotiations inside and outside the country. “It will be key to deliver on the promises made, and many investors will be watching closely,” says Anders Schelde, one of the directors of the Danish fund Akademiker Pension.