Both the deadly fire in Mati, Attica, and the one on the island of Maui, recorded the interaction of the wind with the topography, resulting in the creation of very warm and dry downwinds
In an article, the National Observatory analyzes the similarities between the fires in Mati and Hawaii with the most characteristic being the interaction of the wind with the topography resulting in the creation of very warm and dry winds.
The wildfire that swept across the Hawaiian island of Maui, literally leveling the historic town of Lahaina and killing more than 90 people as of Monday, 08/14/2023, is now the deadliest wildfire of the last 100 years in US history.
Based on available information, the fire broke out in the early hours of Tuesday, August 8, 2023, on the slopes of Mauna Kahalawai, east of the city of Lahaina, and by early morning (09:00 local time) had been brought under control. However, at noon of the same day (08.08.2023, 15:00 local time) a rekindling of the fire was reported, with gusty easterly winds leading to its explosive spread and behavior. According to available reports, in less than 3 hours the fire had reached the coast, now burning within the urban fabric of the city of Lahaina.
Regarding the conditions that led to this deadly fire, the FLAME Pyrometeorological Team of the METEO unit of the National Observatory of Athens presents the following questions and answers.
1) What role did meteorological conditions play in the occurrence of the fire?
According to data from the U.S. Weather Service’s Drought Observatory, 20 percent of Maui’s area where the fire occurred was as of early August 2023 at warning level 1, which corresponds to moderate drought conditions. Fuel availability was high due to the previous wet spell in winter and subsequent persistence of dry conditions. Additionally, forecast data available several days prior to the fire indicated a very high hazard due to enhanced E/NE winds, with an emphasis on the leeward sides of the island of Maui. Therefore, all the ingredients necessary for potentially catastrophic fires to occur were available.
2) What are the pyrometeorological conditions that led to the explosive behavior of the fire?
Analysis of the available evidence indicates that the pyrometeorological conditions during the explosive spread of the fire were determined primarily by the presence of a very strong high pressure field to the north of the Hawaiian island complex (Figure 1). The presence of this anomalously strong high pressure field resulted in the creation of a strong north-south barometric gradient and consequent strengthening of E/NE winds (light winds). Blowing at gusty winds over Mauna Kahalawai, the E/NE winds acted as downdrafts on the leeward side of the mountain, where the town of Lahaina is located. Forced by the topography to move “downhill” on the leeward side, the A/NEs become even hotter and drier, contributing significantly to the extreme drying of the fuel and thus to the increased ease of ignition. In addition, the summary circulation described earlier, with the presence of the very strong high pressure field, also resulted in the transport of warm and dry air from the middle and lower troposphere to the surface (Figure 1), which contributed to the creation of an extremely favorable environment for the explosive spread and behavior of fire. In conclusion, the explosive spread of the Maui fire was driven primarily by the prevalence of very strong (gusty), hot, and dry winds due to the prevailing convective circulation.
3) Did Hurricane Dora play a role in the explosive spread of the fire?
No. Category 4 Hurricane Dora may have been a powerful hurricane, but its passage occurred about 1,000 km south of the Hawaiian island complex. The result is that the effect of the hurricane’s wind field on the winds blowing in the region of the island of Maui is practically negligible. The intensity of the gale force winds that drove the explosive spread and behavior of the fire was determined by the synoptic circulation (see Question 2) and not by the presence of Hurricane Dora in the greater Pacific Ocean region.
4) Are there similarities with the deadly fire in Mati, Attica?
Yes. Both in the deadly fire in Mati, Attica, and in the one on the island of Maui, the interaction of the wind with the topography is recorded, resulting in the creation of very warm and dry downwinds. It is recalled that in the case of Matios, stormy westerly winds were blowing that acted as downdrafts on the leeward side of Mount Penteli, guiding the explosive spread and behavior of the fire. However, in contrast to the fire on the island of Maui, in the Matio fire, the presence of the subtropical monsoon that favored the transport of strong winds and warm and dry air to the surface played an important role.
The National Observatory points out that in deciphering the lessons from the deadly fire on the island of Maui, Hawaii, it is worth noting the following:
– The monitoring of meteorological conditions months to years before each fire season and the short-term forecast (2-3 days) of fire-meteorological conditions on a summary and regional scale must be an integral tool of any risk assessment system.
– It is imperative to take advantage of available fire-meteorological knowledge, tools and services, including sophisticated fire-atmosphere models that can be used in advance to map management and response scenarios, implementing hypothetical fire scenarios, but also operationally in near real time.
Source: Skai
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