Climatologists estimate that warming has made “up to 10 times more likely in Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey and up to 50 times more likely in Libya”
In the study of Greek, American, Dutch, German and British researchers, members of the World Weather Attribution (WWA), published yesterday, September 19, today’s publication of the French newspaper Libération is mentioned, noting that the climatologists they appreciate how warming has made “up to 10 times more likely in Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey and up to 50 times more likely in Libya,” the repetition of such deadly floods.
Frederique Otto, a climatologist at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and co-author of the study, refers to the case of Libya, noting that “the exact extent of rainfall in this area is uncertain” due to the lack of data from weather stations, however “in all cases, the models consistently indicate an increase in the intensity and likelihood of these phenomena”.
For Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, the WWA team’s study estimates up to 40% more rainfall, due to global warming, with researchers however estimating that in central Greece, where rainfall was most extreme, the event is “less likely” to recur and should only happen “once every 80 to 100 years”. “Deforestation and relatively high rates of urbanization have changed the landscape over time, increasing the number of people and properties exposed to flooding and reducing stormwater drainage,” the paper notes.
Source: Skai
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