The El Niño meteorological phenomenonwhich is linked to the increase in temperatures on the planet, will continue during winter and spring in the Northern Hemisphere, announced the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), pushing up temperatures in what is already expected to be the hottest year on record.

According to an announcement by the World Meteorological Organization, the chances of the cyclical weather phenomenon lasting until April 2024 are 90%. And it’s also very likely that El Niño will be at its peak this winter at “strong intensity.”

In September, “surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific exhibited the characteristics of a moderately intense El Niño episode”the UN agency explains, citing “well above average subsurface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific.”

“This higher than normal caloric content has favored sustained increases in sea surface temperatures over the past four months and is expected to cause further increases (albeit weaker) of these temperatures in the coming months, depending on the intensity and nature of atmosphere-ocean feedbacks,” according to the WMO.

According to experts and “given the evolution of past warm episodes, as well as the latest long-term forecasts”, the gradual weakening of El Niño is not expected to occur until spring 2024 in the Northern Hemispherewhile the chance of cooling that a La Niña episode would bring is almost nil.

After a summer with the hottest average global temperatures ever recorded, the European Copernicus Observatory announced in September that “given extremely high surface ocean temperatures, it is likely that 2023 will be the warmest year on record.”

This forecast is shared by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which announced that there is a 99% chance that 2024 will be a record high temperature year.

“Next year is likely to be even warmer. This is clearly and undoubtedly due to the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases caused by human activities.”the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, Professor Petri Taalas, states in a statement.

“Extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, heavy rainfall and flooding will increase in some hard-hit areas”warns Petri Taalas.