The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced today that the non-binding commitments announced at the start of COP28 by more than a hundred countries and oil companies, will only bring about 30% of the reduction in energy emissions needed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030.

The ILO analyzed the potential impact of two voluntary commitments announced with much fanfare on 2 December 2030:

– 130 countries (but not China) to triple renewable energy and improve energy efficiency by 2030

– a charter signed so far by 52 oil and gas companies, mainly to reduce methane leaks.

The agency estimated before this COP28 that energy-related emissions would be in the order of 38 billion tons of greenhouse gases in 2030. Voluntary commitments on these, if fully implemented, would reduce these emissions by 4 billion tonnes, just 30% of what would need to be achieved by 2030 on the way to carbon neutrality in 2050.

“While the commitments are a positive step towards attacking the energy sector’s greenhouse gas emissions, they are far from sufficient to enable international climate targets to be met, particularly the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1, 5 degrees Celsius” above pre-industrial levels, the ILO wrote in its analysis, which was released two days before the end of COP28.

In addition, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on leaders attending COP28 to agree on deep cuts in emissions to prevent temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Guterres, speaking at the Doha Forum, said that despite promises, emissions are at record highs and fossil fuels are the main cause.