“Recent population projections for the horizon of 2050 (United Nations, 2022 and Eurostat, EUROPOP- 2023) agree that the increase in deaths and the decrease in births cannot be reversed in the medium term, with the result that natural balances will remain negative , aging is not going to stop, while immigration will play a key role.”

These are some of the conclusions mentioned in the 4th issue of the “FOCUS” series on “The Greek Demographic Reality”, a digital bulletin created in the context of the “Demographic Projects in Research” Research Program funded by ELIDEK and implemented at the University of Thessaly and Practice in Greece”. The author (o professor Byron Kotzamanis, scientific manager of the Program), notes that whether the population of Greece will decrease by a few hundred thousand or by 1.5 million in 2050 compared to today, will depend mainly on the immigration balance (entries-exits) and secondarily on the balances births-deaths (Natural Balance). In particular, referring to the Natural Balance, he points out that the limitation of the deficit of births compared to deaths presupposes the restraint of the increase of the latter – a direct effect of aging – and, above all, the increase of births. Deaths, which in 1994-2019 amounted to 2.82 million, are estimated to vary in the next 26 years (2024-2049) from 3.40 million (adverse scenario), to 3.25 million (most favorable scenario) . The births in the same period, says Mr. Kotzamanis, in the case of a zero immigration balance, if an extremely favorable environment for the family and the child is not created, are not expected to greatly exceed (adverse scenario) 1.9 million (2 .64 million in the period 1994-2019). However, the progressive creation of this environment (optimistic scenario), always assuming a zero immigration balance, will allow new couples to initially stop their fertility decline (women born around 1980 will not have more than 1, 5 children, while their mothers gave birth to 2.1) and then to increase it progressively so that the generations born after 2010 have up to 1.8 children. This change, as it emerges from the research data, taking into account the future stabilization of the average age at having children, will progressively lead to an increase in annual fertility rates from 1.3-1.4 today to 1.75 children /woman in the 2040s and thus in limiting the decline in births. But, notes the professor, even if this is achieved, births will not exceed 2.1 million in 2024-2049 as the number of people of childbearing age will continue to decline until the middle of our century.

Based on these data, the deficit of births over deaths (the Natural Balance) is expected to range from -1.50 (adverse scenario, without taking strong measures) to -1.15 million (most favorable). This, according to the survey data, would be roughly the range of expected population decline between 2024 and 2050 if the migration scale is zero. Regarding the reduction of 0-64 years, given the inevitable increase of >65 years by about 650 thousand between 2024 and 2049, this will range from 2.15 million (adverse scenario) to 1.8 million. (most favorable scenario), and the reduction of 0-19 years from 550 to 400 thousand respectively.

The immigration balances, therefore, given the deficit of births compared to deaths, is expected, always according to Mr. Kotzamanis, to significantly affect the size and age structure of the population in the future. Based on the estimated range of the deficit of births compared to deaths, the stabilization of the population of Greece around the current levels (10.35 million) requires from a demographic point of view a very positive immigration balance in 2024-2049 (1.0 to 1. 3 million more entries than exits, a balance higher than even this period 1991-2010). Although the future course of this balance is uncertain, Mr. Kotzamanis estimates that, for a number of reasons, it is not possible to record such a high surplus of income over expenses. However, according to him, a “mild” positive immigration balance of 15-20 thousand/year (390 to 520,000 in 2024-2049) would make a decisive contribution to slowing the decline of the total population, that of the young (0-19 years ) and people of working age (20-64 years). Therefore, the combination of policies that will limit the increase in deaths in the coming decades, will create an extremely favorable environment for the acquisition of the desired number of children by the younger generations, will significantly slow down the migration of new productive and reproductive ages while simultaneously allowing a part of them to return who have left and which, at the same time, will allow the integration and permanent settlement of new foreigners in our country is a one-way street, if the goal is to limit the reduction of the population and slow down its aging (that is, if we aimed for the population not to fall short by 9.7 million in 2050 and at the same time limit the decrease in the ages 0-19 and 20-64).

Speaking to the Athenian-Macedonian News Agency, Mr. Kotzamanis states that if we want to approach this goal, “those responsible for planning and decision-making are required, in addition to the fact that they should provide for timely adaptation to some irreversible, immediate decades of developments, to take immediate and appropriate measures in key areas in the context of a coherent demographic policy. The objectives of this policy must obviously be compatible with the objectives of a number of “related” policies (developmental, social, economic – see labor market – harmonization of family and working life, gender equality, etc.) and any measures taken should be graduated in time (micro/medium/long-term) depending on the objectives, implemented and subject to the possibility of evaluating their results”.