The warmest year of the last 30 years was for Greece in 2023as pointed out by his scientific team climatebook.gr, during the presentation of the 2023 climate assessment in our country. As emphasized, the past year was characterized by extreme behavior in many elements, such as forest fires, heat waves, floods, situations that, as underlined, “clearly show the imprint of climate change”. According to the data of the annual Climatebook report, a continuous upward trend of the average temperature in our country has been observed in recent years.

In particular, 2023 was the warmest year in our country, with an average annual temperature value for the whole of Greece at 15.2 degrees.

“The temperature is increasing from decade to decade. The trend from 13.5 degrees has reached 14.8 degrees, that is, as a whole country we have an increase of about 1.5 degrees in 30 years. This is a very high price“, said climatebook.gr team member, Research Director of the Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development at the National Observatory of Athens, Dr. Konstantinos Lagouvardos.

With reference to 2023, at a global level in terms of temperature, the Director of Research at the National Observatory of Athens and member of climatebook.gr, Dr. Vasiliki Kotroni, pointed out that 2023 was the hottest year worldwide, adding that the average temperature was 1.48 degrees higher than the average value of the pre-industrial period. At the same time, he pointed out that “carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise”, as he said the average annual concentration value of 2023 was 4.19 ppm – 2.6 ppm more than 2022, in an ever-increasing concentration. According to Ms. Kotroni, there is an ever-increasing concentration on a global level, which contributes to the warm image that is seen worldwide.

“The last 9 years, from 2015-2023, were the 9 warmest years globally on record. Also, global sea levels are at their highest level on record due to continued warming and melting ice caps, and the rate of sea level rise over the past 10 years is more than double that of the first decade of record, since 1993 -2003. All sizes tend to increase, this is the global picture“, noted Mrs. Kotroni.

In particular for Greece, the average maximum temperature in 2023 was in all regions higher than the average value of the climate period 1991-2020. At the same time, as was underlined during the presentation, it is observed that Northern Greece is warming at a faster rate than any other region of the country, especially the continental regions. Regarding the months that showed significant deviations, according to the annual report, December 2023 was the warmest since 1991, with deviations of 4 to 5 degrees.

Regarding the rainfall that occurred in 2023, the researchers pointed out that 2023 was one of the relatively dry years of the last 30 years. The areas where there was less rain relative to the climatic value were Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, many parts of the eastern country (including Attica), the islands and Crete. The areas where there was more rain relative to the climate value were mainly Thessaly (with a very large deviation due to the extreme rainfall in September) and large parts of Epirus and Western Macedonia. In fact, as the researchers noted, last year’s February was the second driest on record since 1991.

With reference to the sea temperature in Greece, 2023 was the warmest year since 1991. Specifically, according to the report, the sea temperature was in all seas higher than the climatic value of the period 1991 – 2020. Especially in areas of the southeastern Aegean, the positive deviation reached +1.2-1.4 degrees, which, as Mr. Lagouvardos commented, is a very important fact, because this deviation “puts too much pressure on marine ecosystems».

In addition, in July and August 2023, the sea temperature exceeded 28 degrees in the sea area between Rhodes and Kastelorizos as well as in areas of the Ionian Sea, while the lowest temperature, 11 degrees, was recorded in the Thracian Sea and the North Aegean in March 2023.

Regarding the winds, according to the report, the wind intensity was lower than the average value of the period 1991-2020 in the Aegean and the Ionian.

The largest negative deviations (i.e. winds weaker than the climatic value) are found in the southern Aegean with values ​​exceeding -1.6 km/h.

Regarding the summer period (June-July-August) the wind speed was on average 2.5 to 3 km/h weaker than the climatic value, mainly due to the weakened winds in July.

As for the days of snow cover, according to the report, in Northern Greece and Pindos they ranged by 15-20 days below the 2005-2022 average. The total days of snow cover were above average in Central Greece and parts of Crete due to the bad weather “Barvara” in February 2023.

Forest fires, heat waves and floods of 2023

Greece experienced the second worst fire prevention period after that of 2007 in 2023, according to climatebook.gr researchers, with an estimate of 1,740,000 burned acres. As the researchers explained, forest fires are not a weather phenomenon, but are greatly influenced by meteorological and climatic conditions. “The two big heat waves of 2021 and 2023 resulted in a lot of intense drought in the forests, high temperatures, thus creating flammability conditions which were at an extreme point, resulting in mainly manifesting in 2021, even with weak wind conditions,” he noted Mr. Lagouvardos. In fact, from 2017 to 2023, these fires burned approximately 33% of Attica’s forests.

At the same time, the researchers focused on the Evros forest fire in August 2023 that burned a total of more than 900,000 hectares, being, as they pointed out, “the largest fire ever recorded on European soil from 2000 until today”. As they said, very dry atmospheric conditions played a decisive role in the development of this particular fire, which allowed a significant acceleration of the fire’s rate of spread. They even noted that since 2019 in the Evros region, “an extreme situation of large deviations in the amount of rain in Evros has been observed».

In addition, he pointed out that the Evros fire is one of the 16 mega fires recorded in Greece since 2000, three of which have occurred in the last 3 years.

Regarding the heat wave of last July, the researcher, Dr. Stavros Dafis pointed out that it was an unprecedented heat wave, as he said, it was the longest heat wave that has ever been recorded, which lasted from July 12 to 26.

“We have never seen the Athens Basin experience temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius for about 300 consecutive hours.” he underlined and emphasized that there was a huge strain on the population. In fact, according to data presented, on July 23, 2023, over 150 regions of the country had maximum temperature values ​​that exceeded 40 degrees, with the highest temperature being recorded in Gythio with a maximum value of 46.4 degrees.

“Heat events are expected to be increasingly intense and of longer duration in the context of climate change“, commented Mrs. Kotroni.

On the devastating floods of September 2023 due to the “Daniel” storm, Mr Dafis said climate change played a role, adding that studies were underway.

“The data shows that the previous summer, he was highly responsible for what happened in September. High sea temperatures, second heatwave in August in our area, so the heat released by the sea with water vapor accumulating and barometric systems coming from Northern Europe and finding available energy in the Central Mediterranean results in phenomena like Daniel”, noted Mr. Dafis, characterizing the floods as the most destructive of the last century in Greece.

As Mr. Dafis pointed out, the meteorological station of meteo.gr of the National Observatory of Athens recorded 760 mm of maximum daily rain in Zagora Pelion and a total of 1235 mm during the “Daniel” bad weather in Makrinitsa Pelion.

High levels of rain were also recorded in the cities of Karditsa (659 mm) and Volos (617 mm). As a result of the record rainfall in Thessaly, the Thessalian plain was covered in water, with approximately 720,000 acres of arable land being flooded.

Regarding whether there is any estimate for this summer, Mr. Lagouvardos said that although seasonal forecasts are difficult, there is a difference from year to year, the probability of having high temperatures increases.

“We can’t know if we’ll have heatwaves this summer, but it’s becoming more and more likely that we will“, pointed out Mr. Lagouvardos.

Regarding the limit that has been set not to increase the temperature above 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, Ms Kotroni commented that it is an “unrealistic scenario, as we have already reached it”.

“What scientists are trying to achieve is not to exceed +2, because then we will be talking about total climate collapse. Scientists can present the changes we expect in the future climate with various socio-economic scenarios, but it is the policies and politicians who will determine them.“, noted Ms. Kotroni while emphasizing that “scientists saw that we are already 11 years behind».

“In 2037 it is estimated that we will reach a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees“, said Mr. Dafis.