The global emissions methane by the fossil fuel industry, mainly due to the leaks of this powerful greenhouse gasremained at levels record in 2023 “without reason”, as the solutions exist and are affordable, according to the analysis published today by the International Energy Organization (IEO).

Energy production, linked to oil, natural gas and coal, “caused approx 120 million tons of methane emissions in 2023, marking a slight increase compared to 2022,” noted the International Energy Agency, which however predicted a very soon decrease, given the changes that are starting to take place in the sector and the commitments made at COP28.

“Another ten million tons” come “from bioenergy”, such as the wood burning for cooking, adds the International Energy Agency in its 2024 “Global Methane Tracker” analysis.

Methane, the second most powerful greenhouse gas after CO2

Methane, the second most powerful greenhouse gas after CO2, is the main component of natural gas, which leaks from natural gas pipelines, coal mines and our kitchens, but is also released from cows, rice paddies or waste.

About 580 million tons of methane are emitted annually, of which 60% is attributed to human activity (primarily agriculture) and almost a third to natural wetlands.

It has a much larger global warming impact than CO2, but a shorter lifetime (about ten years), responsible for about 30% of global climate change since the industrial revolution. Avoiding its emission will have a strong effect in the short term in combating the greenhouse effect.

Methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry remain close to record levels in 2019 and are a long way from the 75% reduction needed by 2030 to meet the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as defined by the Paris Climate Agreement.

“There is no reason for these emissions to remain so high,” complained Tim Gould, the ILO’s chief economist, at a news conference.

In 2023, “around 40% could have been avoided at no net cost, as the value of the methane collected” and put on the market was greater than the costs of covering the leaks, the IOC said.

A 75% cut would cost “about $170 billion, or less than 5% of the fossil fuel industry’s revenue in 2023,” he added.

About two-thirds of the methane emitted by the fossil fuel industry “comes from just ten countries,” said Christoph McGlade, an energy expert at the agency. China is “by far” first in emissions of coal-derived methane, the US leads in emissions of this greenhouse gas linked to oil and natural gas, “followed closely by Russia”.

2024, a turning year?

Among the “worrying trends”, McGlade cited large “satellite detected” leaks which “increased by more than 50% compared to 2022”, representing an additional 5 million tonnes. One of them, huge, in Kazakhstan, lasted about 200 days.

Despite this, the ILO remains optimistic: “the important policies and regulations announced in recent months, as well as the new commitments made at the UN climate conference COP28 in Dubai, may soon cause them to decrease”, pointed out the international organization, which has become an important factor in the energy transition.

At COP28, 52 oil and gas companies pledged to achieve “near-zero methane emissions” in their operations by 2030, with observers still skeptical of the lack of concrete plans.

More than 150 countries, including recently Azerbaijan, which will host COP29, also participate in the “Global Methane Pledge” initiative, which aims to reduce emissions of this gas by 30% between 2020 and 2030.

“If all these promises are fully fulfilled and on time, they will reduce emissions by around 50% by 2030,” according to Christoph McGlade.

However, these new commitments “have yet to be backed up by detailed plans,” according to the analyst.

“2024 could mark a turning point,” noted economist Tim Gould, as “policies begin to be implemented, there’s more transparency, there’s more general awareness, and we’re better able to spot the big leaks” to stop them.

The ILO, whose estimates exceed the UN’s by 50%, also welcomes the fact that it can count on “a growing number of state-of-the-art satellites monitoring methane leaks, such as MethaneSAT”, which was successfully launched in early March by a SpaceX rocket and is under the control of New Zealand.