With sufficient goods and price restraint, the market is heading towards Easter. The shopping world’s hopes are buoyed by the upcoming festive season, coupled with the activation of the ‘Easter basket’ and ‘Godmother’s basket’ while consumers are already starting to do their own research in order to proceed with Easter shopping in the near future. the markets.

The same time, a significant deceleration in food inflation and price reductions in household and personal care consumer durables are reflected in the inflation figures announced by ELSTAT. In fact, food inflation decreased sequentially from 8.3% in January to 6.7% in February and to 5.3% in March.

In addition, according to the data, particularly significant price reductions are recorded at month level (February – March) in the following food categories: fresh vegetables (-6.3%), fresh fish (-5.4%), pork (-2, 1%) and cheeses (-1.4%). Price reductions are also recorded in non-food products, products that were the subject of the regulation of the Ministry of Development to reduce the benefits of suppliers to supermarkets. In items of immediate household consumption, a price drop of -2.1% is recorded and in items of personal care by -2.5% in March 2024 compared to March 2023.

“The measures are gradually starting to pay off and we will see a faster de-escalation of deflation. They are emergency measures until the market works and then these measures will be extinguished,” he said recently the Minister of Development, Kostas Skrekas, regarding the government’s battle to tackle accuracy. Regarding the price of lambs in the “Easter basket”, the minister stated that the goal is for the price of lamb to be lower than 10 euros per kilo”, while regarding the “Godfathers’ basket”, he noted that “the we are evaluating”, saying that we are “discussing with the market” and that “prices are on the decline”. He also asserted that checks are continuing, with undiminished intensity, across the entire range of the market.

On the same wavelength, the Secretary General of Trade and Consumer Protection Sotiris Anagnostopoulos recently stated about amnoerifi prices that this year will be somewhat better than last year. He also mentioned that, on average, the Easter table is expected to stay at the same levels while for the Easter basket, he noted that it will start on the Wednesday before Holy Week. Asked if the “Godfather’s Basket” will be created again this year, he noted: “There is a discussion with the market, because the purpose of the baskets is to demonstrate products that are on the market and be very cheap, cheaper than what happens on average . But it seems – especially in this category – that prices have started to fall more sharply than in food. So we may have a better picture, but we will see with the market if this measure can be supported.”

Psychology and the new profile of consumers

The impact of inflationary pressures on consumer psychology is captured in EY research. As he explains speaking to APE-MPE o Thanos Mavros, Partner, Consulting Services, EY Greece and Head of EY’s Consumer Products and Retail Sector in Greece and Southeast Europe “EY Greece systematically monitors the trends that have developed in the consumer public over the last three years, through the annual Future Consumer Index survey”.

In Greece, 56% of consumers stated in 2023 that they were very worried about the increased cost of living, 53% about their finances and 40% about the economy in general, while two out of three (69%) estimated that the problem of increased costs life will intensify in the coming months. “These trends were reflected in the festive Christmas market, which is expected to apply to the upcoming Easter market as well, especially in an environment where economic pressures persist and accuracy concerns consumers every day,” says Mr. Mavros.

At the same time, with elements of Marketing Research Laboratory of OPA, 9 out of 10 Greek consumers state that they face difficulties due to the revaluation of basic goods and the increased cost of energy. “Of course, we have seen positive steps being taken, such as the increase in the minimum wage, but, in essence, the purchasing power of consumers has decreased due to the factors we mentioned above and this causes a pessimism which in turn is reflected in the consumer behavior” underlines Mr. Mavros to APE-MPE.

But how is the profile of the average Greek consumer formed today? Recent research answers this question Shopper Insights conducted by NielsenIQ. In particular, the average shopper in supermarket stores is a 39-year-old woman, slightly younger than the average age of the population in the country, which is 42 years, and is the person who is mainly responsible for the majority of purchases in the household. The main purchases of the household are made on a weekly basis, while correspondingly, supplementary/emergency purchases are made on average 2 times a week, in stores of not one, but more than 2 different retail chains.

According to the findings of the survey, the amount of the household’s monthly shopping expenditure at the supermarket was calculated by the respondents at 329 euros, increased by 5% compared to the previous year, and in fact being the highest price of the last four years, as this is reflected through research. Greece is still lower than the European average, which is 352 euros, but higher than markets with a larger GDP, such as Germany, with the latter’s ranking being explained by the strong presence of large discount stores and the wide range of options in private label products.

On the subject of prices and offers, shoppers say they feel prices are rising and as a mechanism to contain their budgets is mainly to focus on the supply of basic items and limit potential luxuries. In fact, almost 2 out of 3 buyers state that they have a satisfactory knowledge of the prices of the products in their basket and buy on a regular basis and with the vast majority of them being able to perceive any price changes. As far as promotions are concerned, these seem to affect loyalty to brands as well as to stores, with 1 in 4 shoppers stating that they change either brand or store, depending on which one has the best offers for their specific shopping trip.

The concerns of CEOs

Regarding the concerns, strategies and predictions of senior food retail executives, a survey presented at NielsenIQ’s annual Shopper Trends conference showed that 8 out of 10 foresee growth for their businesses. For the course of the general sector of fast-moving consumer products, the forecasts are also positive, however more restrained compared to last year, apparently also due to the decline of inflationary phenomena, which are expected, according to the research. Particularly interesting, however, is the finding regarding the expectation of volumes sold: Last year there was widespread concern that price increases would lead to a decrease in consumption, which did not happen, as based on NielsenIQ’s 2023 measurements, demand remained stable. This year, market people, apparently buoyed by last year’s result, are largely predicting stability, with 1 in 5 expecting growth of more than 2%.

Regarding their main concerns, the first place is occupied by the decreasing purchasing power of the buyers, while the answers about the intensified state control of the market and by extension how much this control affects the attractiveness of the country or self-confidence increased significantly needed to attract investment. At the same time, the concern about inflation, as well as the cost of production, continues to be important, although considerably reduced compared to last year.

On the contrary, in the main growth pillars, suppliers report the introduction of new products to the market, as well as innovation in general with a rate of 72%. This view seems to be in the right direction, as through the analysis of NielsenIQ market data, it was found that 12% of the products sold in the market in 2023 were new, while an important finding of the same analysis is the fact that the new codes are the ones that drive sales growth, especially for the large non-food product categories, which are characterized by high R&D. However, at the same time as placing new products on the shelves, there should also be a rationalization of the code within the different product categories, as based on the analysis of the Advanced Analytics department of NielsenIQ, only 18% of the codes make 80% of the turnover of FMCGs in supermarkets.