The number of large forest fires The world is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades due to climate change and governments are poorly prepared for the deaths and disasters that accompany them, the United Nations warned today.
Even the most ambitious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will not prevent a dramatic increase in the frequency of fires, according to a report commissioned by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
By the end of the century, the probability of fires similar to those of Black Summer in Australia (2019–2020) or major Arctic fires in 2020 is likely to increase by 30% by the end of 2050 and “50% by the end of the century,” it said.
Global warming is turning landscapes into gunpowder depots, and more extreme weather events are causing fierce, warmer, and wetter winds that amplify the flames. Such forest fires occur where they have always occurred and now burn areas that were not previously vulnerable to fires, such as the Arctic tundra and the Amazon forest.
“The effects on the population – both socially and physically and psychologically – are unprecedented and long-term,” one of the authors of the report and a firefighting expert with the Food and Agriculture Organization told reporters. of the United Nations.
Large fires, which can rage uncontrollably for days and weeks, cause respiratory and heart problems, especially for the elderly and very young.
A recent study published in the scientific journal The Lancet concludes that exposure to tobacco smoke from fires results in, on average, more than 30,000 deaths per year in 43 countries for which data were available.
“We have seen a significant increase in recent wildfires in northern Syria, northern Siberia, eastern Australia and India,” said Andrew Sullivan, an Australian government firefighter and one of the authors of the report. .
At the same time, the slow disappearance of cool, wet nights that once helped put out fires also makes them harder to put out, according to a second study published last week in the journal Nature.
The UNEP report, drafted by 50 experts, calls on governments to reconsider spending on firefighting by proposing to spend 45% of their budget on fire prevention and preparedness, 34% on fire management and 20% for recovery.
In the United States, one of the few countries to calculate these costs, economic losses have ranged from $ 71 billion to $ 348 billion (€ 63 billion to $ 307 billion) in recent years, according to an estimate cited by the report.
Large fires can also be devastating to wildlife, bringing some endangered species closer to extinction.
Nearly three billion mammals, reptiles, birds and frogs were killed or injured, for example, in the deadly wildfires of Australia in 2019-2020, scientists estimate.
In addition, forest fires can accelerate climate change by fueling a vicious cycle with more fires and rising temperatures.
Last year, burned forests emitted more than 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, contributing to global warming in July and August alone, something similar to the annual emissions from any responsible source in India, according to the Geological Survey. EU, Copernicus.
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