EUR/USD: positive dynamic confirmed for the

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The euro did not suffer from the new customs of customs by Donald Trump against the European Union, the selling forces on the single currency being largely counterbalanced by the prospects for the end of hegemony of the greenback in world trade.

The tenant of the White House now brandishes customs duties in the amount of 30% on imports from the member countries of the European Union. In the meantime, negotiations continue, with additional pressure.

“We believe that the Trump administration uses this last climbing customs to maximize its negotiation power and that it will eventually defuse the situation, especially if the volatility of the bond markets and scholarship holders increases again,” said UBS.

For its part, the European Union has, for the time being, has timed as to potential response measures. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that Europe still intended to favor “a negotiated solution”.

“Our basic hypothesis remains that the two parties will probably reach an agreement before August 1, or that the administration will repel the deadline again while negotiations continue,” judges UBS.

“However, the apparently maximalist and aggressive requirements of the American president – in particular ‘full and open access to the market in the United States, without any customs rights’ – make it difficult to forecast the response of the European Union. There is now a significant risk of climbing commercial tensions between Europe and the United States, which would be harmful for both economies,” said the Swiss bank.

Bover will follow with the greatest attention at 2:30 p.m. the publication of consumer prices in the United States. If necessary, a significant difference in consensus would vary the probabilities of falling federal rates at the end of the month – tiny at a time when we write these lines – by playing on sovereign rates. In annual rate, prices are expected up 2.6%, compared to 2.4% last month.

This morning, operators on currencies composed with the publication of the ZEW index of trust in the German economy by the eponymous institute. The score, awaited up to 50.8, exceeded expectations by emerging at 52.7.

“After the strong improvements of the last two months, the positive feeling of the respondents is confirmed,” comments Professor Achim Wambach, the president of the ZEW.

“Despite the persistent uncertainty linked to global commercial conflicts, almost two thirds of experts anticipate an improvement in the German economy. The hope of rapid resolution of the pricing conflict between the United States and the EU, as well as any economic recovery measures provided by the German government’s immediate investment program, seem to influence the general feeling. This increased optimism is reflected in particular in clear expectations for clearly improved expectations Mechanical engineering and metal production, followed by the electrical industry. “

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1680 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1683 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2464 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1459 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 781 pips and the risk of loss is 224 pips.

Daily data graphics