The sum of the losses currently observed with the long-term projections place Brazil among the economies most affected by the climate crisis.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, average income in Brazil is expected to drop 83% by the end of the century, far beyond the global average income, which is expected to decline by 23% over the same period.
The data are from one of the 34,000 articles evaluated by the IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report on impacts, vulnerabilities and climate adaptation. Launched this Monday (28), it points out the socio-economic effects of the climate crisis in all regions of the world.
“High levels of warming could cause global GDP to decline by 10% to 23% by the end of the century, compared to a world without warming,” the UN climate panel report states.
Another survey cited by the IPCC points out that each ton of carbon dioxide emitted in the world costs Brazil around US$ 24 (R$ 124) because of the harmful effects of climate change. The bill, generated by large emitters and paid by the most vulnerable countries, is called the social cost of carbon.
In addition to the damage caused directly by extreme weather events, such as heavy rains, floods and prolonged droughts, the Brazilian economy is already suffering from the impacts of the climate on agribusiness and on the generation of electricity, based on hydroelectric plants.
Key sectors for generating wealth in the country, both are heavily dependent on climatic factors.
One of the studies cited by the IPCC points out that Brazil’s GDP per capita was 13.5% lower between 1991 and 2010 than it would have been without climate change. In the analysis of a longer period, from 1961 to 2010, the country’s GDP per capita was 24.5% lower due to climatic factors.
Published in 2019, the study by Stanford and Cambridge universities compared economic growth trajectories with variations in temperature, noting that warming helped the economy of cold countries, but hurt that of countries in warmer regions.
“Climate change will change the economic geopolitics of the planet”, evaluates USP physicist and IPCC member Paulo Artaxo.
“Today, Brazil is a major producer of food, but soon temperate regions may become major producers, while tropical regions may become less suitable for the crops we have today”, says Artaxo.
If emissions don’t fall quickly, the damage could be even more significant. The IPCC report points out that extreme heat can reduce work capacity in the agricultural sector by 24%. If emissions are controlled, the number should rise to 9%.
Extreme events in other regions of the planet also generate a ripple effect on the Brazilian economy. “Climate change will hit international supply chains, markets, finance and trade, reducing the availability of goods in Brazil and increasing their price, as well as harming markets for Brazilian exports,” says the UN climate panel report.
The text also points out that there can be financial instability arising from economic shocks caused by climate change, including reduced farm incomes, damage to critical infrastructure and increases in commodity prices.
In another chapter, the report relates the increase in heavy rainfall and sea level rise to the occurrence of flooding in ports and other critical coastal infrastructure, which should also have a ripple effect on exports.
The IPCC also points to the risk of widespread crop failure, which could lead to global food shortages and price increases, with greater damage to poorer populations and risks of social unrest and armed conflict.
Already observed today, agricultural losses are expected to increase dramatically by the end of the century in a scenario where emissions continue to rise. Rice production could fall by 6%; wheat, 21% and corn, 10%. If global emissions start to decrease immediately, losses will also be controlled and pass, respectively, to 3%, 5% and 6%.
Also according to the report, the combination of rising emissions with local deforestation could cause a 33% drop in soy production and pastures in the Legal Amazon.
Animal husbandry is also likely to suffer significant impacts in the scenario where emissions remain high. Projections indicate that cattle, chickens and pigs will experience heat stress for most or all of the year in the country.
Still in this scenario, fish production in Brazil could fall by 36% and that of crustaceans and molluscs, by up to 97% between 2050-2070, compared to projections for 2030-2050.
The report on the socio-economic impacts of climate change forms the second part of the IPCC’s sixth assessment cycle. The first, launched last November, brought together the physical science of climate. In April, the third and final report of the cycle should show the different scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
