The explosive combination of dry vegetation and strong winds, which favors heavy fires, has become about 35% more likely than climate change
OR climate change made the event more likely to Los Angeles of firefighter who claimed the lives of at least 29 people this month, according to a scientific reference network analysis, which was released yesterday, Tuesday.
The explosive combination of dry vegetation and strong winds, which favors fierce fires, has become about 35% more likely than climate change, judged by its specialists network. World Weather Attribution (WWA).
“Anthropogenic climate change has exacerbated the terrible fires of Los Angeles by reducing rainfall, drying vegetation and increasing the overlap between the drought conditions that favor the fires and the strong winds of Santa Anna,” Its announcement.
Due to the climate change “drought conditions are increasingly expanding in winter, which increases the risk of a fire as Santa Anna’s strong winds blow, which can convert small fires that are inaugural to deadly. Fires, “explained Claire Barnes of Imperial College London, one of the experts involved in the study.
In addition, the rain of October, which traditionally marked the end of the fire season, are now rare. Rainfalls recorded between October and December have declined in recent decades, according to the study.
According to the researchers, the era of fires in Los Angeles is therefore extended and becomes “more dangerous”. “The drought conditions that greatly favor a fire now last on average an additional 23 days each year compared to those of the climate in the pre -industrial era,” they say in their report.
Santa Anna’s warm and dry winds usually blow in California between autumn and spring.
The origin of the fires in Los Angeles, which was the worst in the history of the big city of this California, continue to be research. Researchers are mainly considering the possibility of an electric accident causing the outbreak of fire in Altandina (Eton fire), which was the second most devastating in California history.
These fires occurred in early January on the outskirts of Los Angeles, in an area facing a large shortage of significant rain for 8 months.
They also occurred after two years of heavy rains, which had created lush vegetation, which was subsequently dried during the many months of drought.
“We went through a period of incredible humidity in a period of incredible drought,” said John Abatzoglou, a professor of climatology at the University of California and one of the authors of the analysis at a press conference.
The tension of Santa Anna winds has also reached unprecedented levels this month since 2011, according to meteorologists, rejuvenating the flames of fires and making the work of firefighters almost impossible.
“It is an explosive cocktail in terms of climate and meteorological conditions that favors fires,” Abatzoglou said.
The scientific network of World Weather Attribution, which studies relationships between extreme meteorological phenomena and climate change, predicts that the risk of large fires is expected to continue to grow.
“These conditions favoring the fires will increase by over 35% if the rise in temperature reaches +2.6 degrees Celsius in 2100” compared to the pre -industrial era, according to network scientists. The rise in temperature is already estimated at about 1.3 degrees Celsius.
“If there is no faster transition to abandoning fossil fuels that overheat the planet, California will continue to become warmer, drier and more flammable,” Claire Barnes warned.
Source: Skai
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