In Greece, the worst scenario is that in the five years 2050-2054 due to heat 64.2 people will die more per 100,000 inhabitants per year
Athens is one of the ten European cities that are at risk of seeing a large increase in deaths due to rising temperatures by the end of the century, if there are no policies to limit climate change. This finds a study published in the journal Nature Medicine, which also predicts that climate change could increase deaths in Europe by up to 50%.
The researchers, led by the “London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine”, analyzed temperature and mortality data in 854 urban areas of over 50,000 inhabitants in 30 European countries. In Greece, data was studied for 14 cities: Athens, Thessaloniki, Patras, Heraklion, Larissa, Volos, Ioannina, Kavala, Kalamata, Trikala, Serres, Katerini, Xanthi and Chania.
They then appreciated the future deaths due to cold and heat in these areas under different climate change scenarios, demographic scenarios and adaptation scenarios in these conditions for the period 2015-2099. The study took into account the daily average temperature, but not weather events that could modify the estimated number of deaths, such as extreme night temperatures and humidity conditions.
The more vulnerable areas It was found that they were in Mediterraneanbut also in Eastern Europe. Sixth place in ten European cities projected to see the highest number of climate change deaths by the end of the century is occupied by Athens, where it is estimated that the number of deaths due to increased temperatures by 2099 (based on the worst scenario) will rise to 87.523. First on the list is Barcelona (246.082) followed by Rome, Naples, Madrid and Milan. Valencia, Marseille, Bucharest and Genoa are completed after Athens.
“The urban population is more burdensome than the elevated temperature, because there is also an urban thermal islet, which means that the way cities are structured, with scarce green, high dense construction, tall buildings and very concrete, It raises the temperature more and does not allow the temperature to drop at night. Therefore, we know that we have much greater effects on urban centers than the wider regions »Explains to RES-EIA the peer professor of biostatism and epidemiology of the Medical School of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens and Professor of Public Health at Imperial College London, Clea Katsougiannis, who participated in the study with the study with the study University of Athens, Evi Samolis.
Most death numbers may be provided in the above, most populous cities in the Mediterranean, but it has been found that many smaller cities are also likely to be greatly affected by high temperature death rates. Overall, the country of southern Europe that seems to be tested most is Malta, followed by Italy, Spain, Greece and Cyprus- with slight differences between them.
To Greece, in the worst scenario of climate change is estimated that in the five years 2050-2054 Cold deaths will be reduced by 30.7 people per 100,000 inhabitants each year, but on the contrary, 64.2 people will die more per 100,000 inhabitants per year. In the five-year period 2095-2099 the situation is forecast even worse with the decrease in cold deaths being 55.8, but the increase in heat of 175.4.
More generally in southern Europe, the worst climate change scenario is calculated by climate change, as in the five years 2050-2054 a decrease in deaths due to cold by 36.3 and increased heat deaths by 82.2 and five years 2095- 2099 Reduction of cold deaths by 53.8 but an increase in heat deaths of 177.8 per 100,000 inhabitants per year.
Even in the best mitigation scenario of climate change, researchers calculate increased deaths associated with increased temperature, mainly in southern Europe. In all climate change scenarios studied, it was found that the increase in heat -related deaths would exceed the decline in deaths associated with the lesser cold. It is characteristic that in the worst scenario, in which carbon dioxide emissions will double up to 2100, the research team estimates that climate changes could lead to over 2.3 million additional temperature deaths as temperatures as in 2099.
Beyond the Mediterranean region, the impact is expected to be less seriousbut again important in other European cities, such as Paris. On the other hand, Britain and the Scandinavian countries could see a clear decrease in deaths, as the decrease due to reduced cold may be greater than the heat increase. For example, London can see a decrease of about 27,500 deaths. However, this lowest number of deaths is greatly offset by increases in the rest of Europe, with the total increase in deaths due to climate change (taking into account the decline in cold deaths) during the five years 2050-2054 being estimated at 11.7 People per 100,000 inhabitants per year, and in the five years 2095-2099 in 45.4 people.
The authors of the study clarify that these predictions may have a high level of uncertainty, especially for projections that are made in the long run. However, as Mrs Katsougiannis points out in RES-EIA, “When the results are statistically significant and we are sure that there will be a burden, we have the assurance we consider to be accepted in order to be alarmed and this is the case with the burden on the Mediterranean countries if the measures are not taken.”
Mrs Katsougiannis characterizes the specific study ‘pioneering“, As the researchers took into account scenarios for changing demographic and socio -economic factors, such as population aging and GDP change, and not just greenhouse gas emissions. Another innovative element in this research is that the possible adaptation of the population to climate change was included. Even in this case there is a burden on the number of deaths“Just in the best scenario we have intervened to mitigate climate change and there will be a population adaptation, this effect may be manageable.”she adds herself. The concept of adaptation to studies is considered to be at the level of behavior of the population in ways of protecting it from changes in temperature. However, Mrs Katsougiannis estimates that “There is also adaptation of the human body to it, but it has not been extensively studied to date in what time is happening.”
In the study, only deaths from temperature changes were studied, but the impact of climate change on the health of the populations is not only that. “The increase in mortality is terrible at high temperatures. So it seems that the number of people who die of heat stroke is very affected, but we do not have sufficient information to study how other aspects of health are affected. For example, we know that accidents are increasing, but this connection to climate change has not been sufficiently studied because there is no data in a wide population field in Europe. ” observes Mrs Katsougiannis.
Having dedicated her research to the effects of air pollution on health, she stresses that “The greatest environmental risk for health worldwide is the exposure to air pollution of outdoors, but in some parts of the world and interiors. This is linked to climate change, and when there is synergy of various environmental factors, such as high air pollution, eg from a forest fire and a heatwave, then the effects are multiplier. OR climate change so is a multidimensional problem For health and the scientific community acknowledges that the effects of climate change on human health have not taken the necessary attention. “
Researchers calculated that up to 70% of deaths could be avoided if immediate measures were taken.
Source: Skai
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